• Adelphi Books

    Chapter Two: Contestation entrenched

    14 December 2016. 

    The Cold Peace began to unravel after the ‘colour revolutions’ of 2003–05. In 2004 came the ‘big bang’ enlargement of Euro-Atlantic institutions, and a few years later the five-day war between Russia and Georgia, after which the EU began to play a more active role in post-Soviet Eurasia.

  • Adelphi Books


    14 December 2016.  The crisis in Ukraine began in November 2013 when a crackdown on students protesting against the government’s decision not to sign an agreement linking the country more closely with the EU led to huge street protests, ending with the overthrow of the president. Russia then occupied and annexed the Crimean peninsula, and supported unrest in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine. This chapter introduces the concept of the negative-sum game as a metaphor for the conflict, and explores some alternative explanations.

  • Adelphi Books

    Chapter Three: Breaking point

    14 December 2016. 

    This chapter covers the Ukraine crisis itself: the election of Viktor Yanukovych; the developments that led to the Maidan Revolution; the fall of Yanukovych’s government; the occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula; the intensification of conflict in eastern Ukraine; and international attempts to resolve the situation.

  • Adelphi Books

    Chapter Four: The negative-sum game and how to move past it

    14 December 2016. 

    The Ukraine crisis has yielded a ruinous outcome in which all parties are worse off, and international security has declined. In this final chapter, the authors consider ways in which the major players might move past this negative-sum game.

  • Survival

    Little Grey Men: China and the Ukraine Crisis

    21 November 2016. 

    China is moving towards a ‘Russian’ view of hybrid and proxy warfare – particularly in cyberspace.

  • Expert Commentary

    Russia’s use of military force as a foreign policy tool: is there a logic?

    20 October 2016.  Russia has used its military beyond its borders with unprecedented frequency in the period since the invasion of Crimea in February 2014. In this PONARS Policy Memo Samuel Charap explains this behaviour, arguing that we should see Moscow's use of force as one element of a broader coercive bargaining process.

  • Strategic Comments

    NATO’s look East

    24 June 2016. 

    Russia's military modernisation and aggressiveness have prompted NATO to refocus on European security and especially on reassuring worried Eastern members of the Alliance, and spurred NATO members to spend more on defence. But differences remain among allies over the specific measures required to ensure effective deterrence and sufficient comfort. NATO also faces complex challenges involving terrorism, state failure and humanitarian strife on its periphery.

  • Shangri-La Voices

    The US and Russia in the Asia-Pacific

    02 June 2016.  From November 2013–April 2016, the IISS Russia and Eurasia Programme jointly led a Track II initiative on United States–Russia relations in the Asia-Pacific with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The project brought together Asia-Pacific regional experts from those two countries to discuss the most pressing issues facing the US and Russia in the region. The final report is available here. Its...

  • Armed Conflict Survey

    Chapter 7: Europe and Eurasia

    05 May 2016. 

    Armenia–Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)
    Central Asia
    Russia (North Caucasus)

  • Expert Commentary

    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: US–Russian relations - The middle cannot hold

    14 April 2016.  By Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, and Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations US–Russian relations have been in a downward spiral since Vladimir Putin took the fateful decision to invade Crimea in February 2014. More than two years later, the situation is as grave as it has been since the heated days of the Cold War, in the early 1980s. Russia and...

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