• ACD Insight

    Turkey approves constitutional amendment

    18 April 2017.  The vote to approve amendments to the Turkish constitution means that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's executive authority will be formalised and consolidated. What happens next? Expect increased human security concerns within Turkey's borders, a recalibration of Turkey's relationship with the EU, and a strengthened narrative to knuckle down on Kurdish insurgency.

  • IISS Voices

    Turkey approves constitutional amendment

    17 April 2017.  The vote to approve amendments to the Turkish constitution means that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s executive authority will be formalised and consolidated. What happens next? Expect increased human security concerns within Turkey’s borders, a recalibration of Turkey’s relationship with the European Union, and a strengthened narrative to knuckle down on Kurdish insurgency.

  • ACD Insight

    Refugees caught in toxic mix brewing in Turkey

    21 March 2017.  Several recent incidents in Turkey speak to a dangerous atmosphere for the country's Syrian refugee population. Caitlin Vito argues that if the tension continues to build, something will have to give.

  • The Military Balance

    Chapter 4: Europe

    14 February 2017.  Europe: Crises and instability: more of the same; Spending and personnel; New white paper defines Germany’s security and defence agenda; Germany steps up its cyber defence; NATO’s Warsaw Summit; EU defence debate at a turning point; Turkey – fallout from the coup attempt; Defence Economics; Macroeconomics; Defence spending and procurement; Defence industry and exports

    Nordic and Baltic Security: Institutional alignment; Finland and Sweden: future directions
    France: Operations; Major military reforms and programmes; Defence Economics; Major exports and industrial landscape
    United Kingdom: Operations and deployments; International activity; Implementation of SDSR 2015; Personnel; UK–EU defence relations after Brexit; Defence Economics; Macroeconomics; Defence spending and procurement; UK defence industry and exports

  • ACD Insight

    Pakistan’s Afghan refugees are pawns in a political conflict

    19 January 2017.  Pakistan’s use of refugees for political leverage reflects a global trend. Caitlin Vito argues the tactic could prompt a humanitarian crisis – and will not bring Pakistan the security it craves

  • Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: The security risks of nuclear weapons in Turkey outweigh the benefits

    29 July 2016.  Of the five NATO allies that still host United States nuclear weapons, I used to think that Turkey would be the last to see them removed. Unlike in Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and (less so) Italy, there has been very little domestic opposition to the nuclear weapons in Turkey. In the aftermath of the 15 July failed coup, I now expect they will be the first to go. There have been sound...

  • Strategic Comments

    Turkey: the attempted coup and its troubling aftermath

    21 July 2016. 

    The military coup attempted in Turkey on 15 July 2016 fizzled out quickly. But President Tayyip Erdogan has accused a political rival, exiled Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, and his followers of engineering the coup without substantiation, and is using it as a pretext to purge the government, judiciary and military. This reaction could lead to sustained domestic instability that would strain Turkey's international relations, exacerbate its democratic deficit and damage its social fabric.

  • Adelphi Books

    Introduction: The strategic art of confronting armed groups

    04 July 2016. 

    This book seeks to develop a framework to help analysts and policymakers understand the challenges of using a combination of coercion and diplomacy in dealing with non-state armed groups. To do this, it considers a number of cases of intra-state conflict, which vary considerably in geography, number and type of participants, objectives of the protagonists, the mix of force and diplomacy employed over time, and outcome. By casting the net so wide, the conclusions drawn can be strengthened, while the analysis of objectives and methods as they changed over time makes explicit the lessons for strategy.

  • Adelphi Books

    Chapter Two: Struggling to move from military stalemate to negotiations

    04 July 2016. 

    Sometimes, in their quest to end conflict, states can fall into deadlock, forever managing the problem rather than definitively addressing it. This chapter looks at two conflicts that, for decades, have fallen short of being either militarily or politically decisive: Turkey’s war with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Colombia’s war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

  • Adelphi Books

    Conclusion

    04 July 2016. 

    In the strategic art of confronting armed groups, there are as many theories of victory as there are wars with armed groups. There is no 'magic formula' for getting the policy mix 'right'. As the diverse cases presented in this Adelphi reveal, each state will engage armed groups in ways that accord with its unique goals, values, capabilities and partnerships, and based on whether the encounter is unfolding at home or abroad. In all cases, strategies can stand and fall on an aptitude and ability to employ the separate streams of engagement in a mutually supportive manner.   

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