• Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Russia, Iran and the air-base deal that wasn’t

    23 August 2016.  The abruptness with which Russian use of an Iranian air base was halted this week is a reminder that the two nations are not so much allies as partners in a marriage of convenience. The episode is also a reminder of Iran–US military cooperation not so long ago, a high point in relations that offers a beacon for the future. On 16 August, a foreboding headline in the Washington Post...

  • IISS Voices

    Paulina Izewicz: UN walks a fine line in new Iran report

    22 July 2016.  A first, carefully-worded UN report on the Iran deal was released on 18 July. While, to all intents and purposes, it contains little new information, it has nonetheless elicited some criticism from Iran, Russia and the United States.

  • Strategic Comments

    European air combat capabilities

    13 July 2016. 

    The United Kingdom electorate's unanticipated vote to leave the European Union risks worrying NATO allies about the UK's reliability as a defence partner at a time when Russian threats appear to be rising. To allay this concern, the British government could expand its customary multinational collaboration with European partners on defence aerospace projects, such as a new crewed combat aircraft.

  • Survival

    Russian Strategic Deterrence

    11 July 2016. 

    Russia’s intention to conduct a Ukraine-style hybrid operation against a NATO country is uncertain, but its determination to deter NATO from encroaching on Russia’s security interests is clear.

  • Military Balance Blog

    Adrian Philip Kendry: NATO defence spending and the Warsaw Summit – will Brexit have an effect?

    08 July 2016.  Uncertainty arising from the Brexit vote casts a shadow over the 8–9 July NATO Summit in Warsaw. Not only does it threaten to affect UK defence spending beyond 2016, but it also has the capacity to imperil the fragile recovery in NATO European defence spending, writes Adrian Philip Kendry.

  • Adelphi Books

    Introduction: The strategic art of confronting armed groups

    04 July 2016. 

    This book seeks to develop a framework to help analysts and policymakers understand the challenges of using a combination of coercion and diplomacy in dealing with non-state armed groups. To do this, it considers a number of cases of intra-state conflict, which vary considerably in geography, number and type of participants, objectives of the protagonists, the mix of force and diplomacy employed over time, and outcome. By casting the net so wide, the conclusions drawn can be strengthened, while the analysis of objectives and methods as they changed over time makes explicit the lessons for strategy.

  • Adelphi Books

    Conclusion

    04 July 2016. 

    In the strategic art of confronting armed groups, there are as many theories of victory as there are wars with armed groups. There is no 'magic formula' for getting the policy mix 'right'. As the diverse cases presented in this Adelphi reveal, each state will engage armed groups in ways that accord with its unique goals, values, capabilities and partnerships, and based on whether the encounter is unfolding at home or abroad. In all cases, strategies can stand and fall on an aptitude and ability to employ the separate streams of engagement in a mutually supportive manner.   

  • Adelphi Books

    Chapter Three: The ruthless pragmatism of being selective and deceptive

    04 July 2016. 

    Judging which armed groups are truly abhorrent, and which could be tolerated under certain circumstances, is a matter of perspective. It is also a matter of policy choice. States may be willing to go to extraordinary lengths to be selective, and possibly deceptive, in order to work with some armed groups while fighting others. In Pakistan's confrontation with Islamist armed groups after 9/11, and Russia's conflicts in the North Caucasus, these states have made judgements about which armed groups to work with and which to fight.

  • Adelphi Books

    Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups

    04 July 2016. 

    Fighting and talking with armed groups can take many forms. Some states have fought, negotiated and then fought again. Others have fought and negotiated simultaneously. There are also instances of states facing multiple armed groups that have taken a discriminatory approach, fighting some while negotiating with others. This Adelphi draws on a number of different cases across the globe to examine what constitutes an effective and realistic strategy for dealing with armed groups, and develops a framework to help policymakers and analysts to understand the challenges involved in using a combination of coercion and diplomacy.

  • Strategic Comments

    NATO’s look East

    24 June 2016. 

    Russia's military modernisation and aggressiveness have prompted NATO to refocus on European security and especially on reassuring worried Eastern members of the Alliance, and spurred NATO members to spend more on defence. But differences remain among allies over the specific measures required to ensure effective deterrence and sufficient comfort. NATO also faces complex challenges involving terrorism, state failure and humanitarian strife on its periphery.

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