• Strategic Comments

    Cyber conflict and deterrence

    14 September 2016. 

    As with the strategic adaptation to nuclear weapons, effectively developing the policies, doctrines and plans required to stabilise the deterrence of cyber conflict constitutes a long-term challenge. Although major powers have exercised mutual restraint for fear of precipitating uncontrollable consequences, the self-deterrence arising from strategic ambiguity is too uncertain to be sufficient. Deterrence-by-denial mechanisms remain the most promising active measures, and arms control should be pursued.

  • Survival

    Information Warfare and the US Presidential Election

    12 September 2016. 

    If the Russian state was indeed behind the leaking of Democratic National Committee emails, it may have overplayed its hand.

  • Survival

    Dangerous Games

    12 September 2016. 

    How does contemporary Russia view NATO’s public attempts at thinking through scenarios for East–West conflict?

  • IISS Voices

    Jonathan Stevenson: Explaining US policy stasis in Syria

    12 September 2016.  The fragile hope is that the deal tentatively struck last week by John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov for the US and Russia to coordinate counter-jihadist operations and restrain opposition and regime military activity, respectively, will produce a durable ceasefire in Syria and re-energise political talks. As Jonathan Stevenson explains, prospects for success are dubious.

  • Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Russia, Iran and the air-base deal that wasn’t

    23 August 2016.  The abruptness with which Russian use of an Iranian air base was halted this week is a reminder that the two nations are not so much allies as partners in a marriage of convenience. The episode is also a reminder of Iran–US military cooperation not so long ago, a high point in relations that offers a beacon for the future. On 16 August, a foreboding headline in the Washington Post...

  • IISS Voices

    Paulina Izewicz: UN walks a fine line in new Iran report

    22 July 2016.  A first, carefully-worded UN report on the Iran deal was released on 18 July. While, to all intents and purposes, it contains little new information, it has nonetheless elicited some criticism from Iran, Russia and the United States.

  • Strategic Comments

    European air combat capabilities

    13 July 2016. 

    The United Kingdom electorate's unanticipated vote to leave the European Union risks worrying NATO allies about the UK's reliability as a defence partner at a time when Russian threats appear to be rising. To allay this concern, the British government could expand its customary multinational collaboration with European partners on defence aerospace projects, such as a new crewed combat aircraft.

  • Survival

    Russian Strategic Deterrence

    11 July 2016. 

    Russia’s intention to conduct a Ukraine-style hybrid operation against a NATO country is uncertain, but its determination to deter NATO from encroaching on Russia’s security interests is clear.

  • Military Balance Blog

    Adrian Philip Kendry: NATO defence spending and the Warsaw Summit – will Brexit have an effect?

    08 July 2016.  Uncertainty arising from the Brexit vote casts a shadow over the 8–9 July NATO Summit in Warsaw. Not only does it threaten to affect UK defence spending beyond 2016, but it also has the capacity to imperil the fragile recovery in NATO European defence spending, writes Adrian Philip Kendry.

  • Adelphi Books

    Introduction: The strategic art of confronting armed groups

    04 July 2016. 

    This book seeks to develop a framework to help analysts and policymakers understand the challenges of using a combination of coercion and diplomacy in dealing with non-state armed groups. To do this, it considers a number of cases of intra-state conflict, which vary considerably in geography, number and type of participants, objectives of the protagonists, the mix of force and diplomacy employed over time, and outcome. By casting the net so wide, the conclusions drawn can be strengthened, while the analysis of objectives and methods as they changed over time makes explicit the lessons for strategy.

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