• Military Balance Blog

    Aurora 2017: shedding light on Swedish defence thinking

    11 September 2017.  On 19 September 2017, Sweden will begin its largest military exercise for two decades, Aurora 2017.  Over its three-week course, 19,000 personnel drawn from all of Sweden’s armed services, including the Home Guard, will be involved. Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and the United States will also contribute around 1,000 troops between them. The exercise’s focus is the southeast of the country, and Gotland island, the closest Swedish...

  • Strategic Survey

    Chapter 1: Prospectives

    06 September 2017. 

    The goal of shaping the international strategic environment seems out of reach even for the larger powers, unless resources are made available to meet the complex and hybrid threats that have emerged.  

  • Strategic Survey

    Chapter 8: Russia and Eurasia

    06 September 2017. 

    As neither the US nor Russia has put forward realistic proposals to address the structural problems in their relationship – despite the need for such measures in arms control and the security architecture of the post-Soviet region – the new Cold War dynamic looks set to remain in place.

  • Strategic Survey

    Chapter 9: Europe

    06 September 2017. 

    A combination of factors relating to growing disaffection with democracy, instability on Europe’s periphery and the legacy of the economic and financial crisis has created divisions among EU member states that run between West and East, North and South.


  • Expert Commentary

    The generals can’t save us from Trump

    28 July 2017.  John Kelly, as the new White House chief of staff, is unlikely to improve the substantive quality of Trump’s incompetent foreign and security policy. For all their experience and insight, the generals in the Trump administration have failed because they’re military men, not statesmen, argues Jonathan Stevenson.

  • Strategic Comments

    The Ban Treaty arrives

    26 July 2017. 

    The text of the recently negotiated Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons released on 7 July, approved by a vote of 122-1, is likely to be approved by the UN General Assembly and ratified. While none of the nuclear-weapons states or their allies favours the treaty, it marks the rejection of their customary consensus-based approach. Accordingly, the status quo will continue, but now faces a more invigorated and unified opposition.

  • Survival

    Measuring Military Cyber Power

    17 July 2017.  Understanding how and why cyber capabilities are developed and deployed is becoming a critical element in determining the power dynamics between states.

  • Survival

    Allegation, Counter-Allegation and the INF Treaty

    17 July 2017.  Russia’s alleged deployment of a treaty-breaching ground-launched cruise missile poses serious political–military questions for European states.

  • Survival

    Strategic Stability Under Obama and Trump

    17 July 2017.  The Trump administration must assess how strategic stability, an organising concept for the Obama administration’s strategic policy, might fit with its own guiding principles.

  • Military Balance Blog

    Can Franco-German cooperation deliver a new European defence?

    14 July 2017.  While Europe could certainly do with more capabilities and cooperation, a more fundamental change of strategic mindset in Paris and Berlin is required if Europe is to build a more autonomous defence capability. Fabrice Pothier looks beyond recent statements and announcements to examine what their true policy positions are.

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