Strongman Khalifa Haftar is challenging Libya's internationally recognised but weak Government of National Accord for effective control of the country. While France has brokered a ceasefire and a new peace initiative, Haftar has substantial outside support from Egypt and the UAE, and the eventual political dispensation will probably turn on further military developments.

A string of military victories for Libya’s eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar has left the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Libya’s capital, facing disaster. Conceived as a unity government to end the country’s civil war, the GNA has failed to win public support or tame Tripoli’s fractious militias in its first 14 months. Haftar commands the forces of the GNA’s rival, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) parliament, which now controls approximately two-thirds of the country and most of its oil industry. With Haftar declaring his intention to march on Tripoli, the GNA’s days may be numbered without a new peace initiative.

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