• Strategic Comments

    US–Mexico relations under Trump

    30 November 2016. 

    If US President-elect Trump were to fulfil his strident campaign promises on immigration and trade with respect to Mexico, prospects for left-wing, populist candidates in the 2018 Mexican presidential election would likely improve. Victory for such a candidate could make Mexico significantly more antagonistic to the United States.

  • Strategic Comments

    Bolivia: Morales’s growing unpopularity

    16 November 2016. 

    There appears to be growing eagerness both in Bolivia and abroad for Bolivian President Evo Morales to step down. But after losing a February 2016 referendum that would have allowed him to run for a fourth term, he has vowed to reverse this result so he can continue to serve as head of state. Turbulence in Bolivia seems likely in the medium term.

  • IISS Voices

    Antonio Sampaio: What now for Colombia's peace process?

    04 October 2016.  The Colombian people's rejection of the FARC peace deal has thrown the country into disarray. What happens now? Officially, the peace process goes on, says Antonio Sampaio, but the challenge just got a whole lot bigger.

  • Strategic Survey

    Chapter 10: Latin America

    27 September 2016. 

    The downfall of left-leaning governments across Latin America came to seem inevitable, due to their over-reliance on favourable economic winds and failure to prepare for hard times.

  • Strategic Survey

    Chapter 2: Drivers of Strategic Change

    27 September 2016. 

    Asia-Pacific; South Asia and Afghanistan; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and North Africa; Russia and Eurasia; Europe; Latin America; North America

  • Survival

    Latin America’s Invisible War

    12 September 2016. 

    Ioan Grillo’s Gangster Warlords and Aldo Civico’s The Para-State draw deserved attention to the violence of Latin America’s drug war.

  • Strategic Comments

    Venezuela’s post-Chavez torment

    03 August 2016. 

    Venezuela's dire economic situation – involving hyperinflation, capital flight and severe shortages of food and medicine – has produced violent protests, looting and the political opposition's calls for intransigent President Nicolas Maduro's recall. Procedures for a recall vote are under way. While replacing Maduro would not instantly solve Venezuela's complex problems, little progress appears possible without it.

  • Events

    Transitioning from Colombia’s Long War

    27 July 2016. 

    Discussion Meeting
    HE Néstor Osorio Londoño, Colombia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom
    Dr Samir Puri, Lecturer, King's College London; author of upcoming Adelphi book Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups
    Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development, IISS
    Gwen Burnyeat, Wolfson Scholar, PhD Student, University College London
    Arundel House, London
    Wednesday 27 July 2016, 12–1.30PM BST

  • Strategic Comments

    Colombia: the fraught end of a long war

    29 June 2016. 

    The ceasefire announced last week between the Colombian government and the FARC, ending 50 years of destructive war, will be followed soon by a final accord and a plebiscite, which is likely to ratify the accord. While these developments are welcome, the Colombian people remain resentful of the FARC's legitimisation and sceptical about the accord's sustainability. Implementation will be a stiff and ongoing challenge.

  • IISS Voices

    Antônio Sampaio: Despite hopes for lasting peace in Colombia, political economy of conflict remains intact

    23 June 2016.  The historic peace deal will no doubt result in a significant decrease in, if not the end of, armed conflict between the government of Colombia and FARC rebels. But, as Antonio Sampaio explains, the situation in the country’s rural backwaters remains messy and far less clear-cut than the gestures and statements given in the grand halls of Havana might suggest.

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