• Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Is it time yet for optimism on the Iran nuclear talks?

    24 April 2014.  As the six-month interim Iran nuclear deal hit the halfway mark this week, the tone of most public commentary turned positive about the chances for striking a comprehensive deal. Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had kept its promises under the 24 November Joint Plan of Action. Indeed, Iran has finished diluting half of its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium hexafluoride to 5%, and conversion...

  • Events

    Iran, the US and the Middle East Viewed from Jerusalem and Washington

    17 April 2014. 

    Discussion Meeting
    Professor David Menashri, President of the College of Law and Business in Ramat Gan;
    Founding Director of the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, Tel Aviv University
    Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs;
    Editor of Survival, IISS
    Arundel House, London
    Thursday 17 April 2014

  • Survival

    Is Iran a Military Threat?

    01 April 2014. 

    Tehran’s military capabilities do not match its ambitions for recognition and status. It is cautious, defensive and prudent in resorting to force, due as much to experience as to realism about its own limits.

  • IISS Voices

    Dina Esfandiary: Iran nuclear talks - what each side wants

    19 March 2014.  By Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme A further round of talks between world powers and Iran began in Vienna this week, aiming to reach the next step to a permanent agreement on Iran's nuclear programme. ‘Today, both sides want a deal, and fast,’ writes Dina Esfandiary in the Lobe Log. ‘The positive atmosphere that characterised the recent rounds will likely endure. Gone are the days of “procedural nonsense”, according...

  • Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Good luck to the Iran nuclear negotiators – they’ll need it

    17 March 2014.  Senior-level talks on the Iran nuclear issue resume in Vienna this week amid a generally upbeat mood. The parties are rolling up their sleeves, staffing their teams and getting to grips with key issues. Long gone are the trying talks of the past: the frustrating spring 2012 meetings in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow during which Iran’s chief negotiator, the dreary Saeed Jalili, began every session with a sanctimonious sermon. President Hassan...

  • Events

    Negotiating with Iran: Prospects and Problems

    10 March 2014. 

    Discussion Meeting
    Dr Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research, The Belfer Center at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
    Arundel House, London
    Monday 10 March 2014

  • Politics and Strategy

    Shahram Chubin: Iran’s military pragmatism

    12 February 2014.  Iran is often seen as an aspirant regional hegemon whose immediate aim is to weaken and eliminate America’s influence and presence in the Middle East. It is also depicted as a military threat whose power to intimidate its neighbours could be amplified by its nascent but ambitious nuclear programme. As the largest Shia state and the leader of the ‘Islamic resistance front’, the country is seen as a menace by...

  • IISS Voices

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Ways forward for Iran nuclear deal

    07 February 2014.  By Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme As I explained in my last post, the interim Iran nuclear deal is good as far as it goes, but the chances of reaching a long-lasting comprehensive agreement are quite low: no more than 10%. There is also a 10% possibility that diplomacy will break down altogether. In my 3 February talk at IISS, I ticked off some of the events that could...

  • The Military Balance

    Chapter 7: Middle East and North Africa

    05 February 2014. 

    Syria: Implications for regional armed forces; Regime regroups; Rebel forces
    Egypt: the military resumes power
    Iran: Missile developments
    GCC: Cooperative defence and Iran
    Regional defence economics; Major arms-trade developments in 2012 and 2013; Military commercial activities
    Algeria: Recent initiatives; Regional and border defence; Counter-terrorism and international cooperation; Defence economics

  • IISS Voices

    Six reasons why I’m optimistic about the Iranian nuclear deal, and two reasons why not

    04 February 2014.  By Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme After years of international tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme, this has been a winter of diplomatic progress. Following on from the 24 November Joint Plan of Action that capped Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the 13 January agreement on the technical understandings, the six powers – the US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia – will meet with Iran on 18 February to begin negotiations...

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