• Survival

    The Ukraine Crisis and Nuclear Order

    25 July 2014. 

    On some issues, particularly Iran, the fallout has been negligible, yet there is still reason for concern. The gravest dangers are the devaluing of security assurances and cracks in the credibility of extended deterrence.

  • Strategic Comments

    Iran nuclear talks extended for four more months

    23 July 2014. 

    Deep differences over the allowable size of Iran's nuclear programme and how long restrictions on it should remain in place proved insurmountable in the latest round of negotiations. Iran and the six powers known as the E3+3 now have a further four months to determine whether they can summon the political will to bridge the gap.

  • IISS Voices

    Strategic Snapshots: Iran nuclear talks, glass half full?

    23 July 2014.  Is the decision to roll over negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme politically sustainable? Mark Fitzpatrick and Adam Ward discuss Ali Khamenei’s redline over centrifuges, the uncertain effects of the US midterm elections and the difficulty of calibrating sanctions with political pragmatism. 

  • Events

    The Day After the Deadline: Assessing the Nuclear Negotiations with Iran

    22 July 2014. 

    Discussion Meeting
    Mark Fitzpatrick,
    Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament programme, IISS
    Dina Esfandiary,
    Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament programme, IISS
    Arundel House, London
    Tuesday 22 July 2014, 12:30-1:30pm

  • Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Continue the Iran talks, but lock in a deal on Arak

    16 July 2014.  In a friendly Twitter debate this week, I was asked why I advocated rejecting an imperfect Iranian offer for a nuclear deal when the alternative – a return to escalation and probable conflict – is so dire. My answer was that there is a third option: to continue negotiations beyond the 20 July deadline. Indeed, that is the path that both Iran and the US now seem set on taking...

  • IISS Voices

    Dina Esfandiary: Iran and the question of ICBMs

    14 July 2014.  By Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme A US Pentagon report from January 2014 (but only released in early July) seems to have revised earlier US intelligence assessments that Iran could test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2015. Indeed, although Iran has an advanced missile programme, the state of its current industrial base, research and development, and decades of being under sanctions led the IISS to assess in...

  • Military Balance Blog

    Joseph Dempsey: Iraqi's latest Su-25s come from Iran

    02 July 2014.  By Joseph Dempsey, Research Analyst, Military Balance Online Following on from an initial delivery of Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft from Russia, the Iraqi Ministry of Defence announced a further delivery had been received on 1 July 2014. Although the source of this latest delivery of Su-25s has not been officially commented upon, it is the conclusion of IISS analysts that these latest examples originate from neighbouring Iran. Iran has recently pledged...

  • Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Russia’s solidarity with the West in the Iran nuclear talks

    26 June 2014.  Amid ongoing tensions over Ukraine, it is worth noting that Russia continues to cooperate closely with the West over Iran. Far from using the Iran issue to retaliate against US and European sanctions, as Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov ill-advisedly warned it might in mid-March, Russia has helped bolster the US position on the most sensitive aspect of the Iran negotiations: demands for cutbacks in the centrifuge programme. The most interesting...

  • Politics and Strategy

    Mark Fitzpatrick: Divining ‘bilats’ in Geneva

    12 June 2014.  By happenstance, I was in Geneva this week concurrent with the direct Iran–US talks that were taking place. The closest I got to the action was on Tuesday evening when I walked by the US mission apartment on Quai Wilson, where what I presumed to be members of the US delegation and their hangers-on were holding a soirée. Somebody who resembled Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns was in a...

  • Strategic Comments

    North Korean lessons for an Iranian nuclear accord

    21 May 2014. 

    The history of diplomacy with North Korea has demonstrated the utility of freezing the momentum of a nuclear programme, even if only temporarily, and suggests that an imperfect deal with Iran could be preferable to one that insists on the dismantlement of most of its nuclear infrastructure but to which Tehran would never consent.

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