Download PDF In the August–September issue, Daniel Deudney and G. John Ikenberry argue that the Iraq War was the product of foreign-policy realism, not liberalism; Nigel Inkster asks how military cyber power might be measured; Douglas Barrie examines Russia’s deployment of a ground-launched cruise missile in violation of the INF Treaty; Brad Roberts explores approaches to strategic stability under the Obama and Trump administrations; William C. Potter traces the diplomatic route to a nuclear ban treaty; Elizabeth Grimm Arsenault analyses the United States’ dilemma over the treatment of ISIS detainees; Chuck Freilich warns that advocates of Israeli strategic independence from the US...

1,304

Number of nurses from EU countries who registered to work in the UK in July 2016, the month following the vote for Brexit

46

Number who registered to work in April 2017

30,000

Current shortage of nurses in England alone, according to the Health Foundation1

End of an era

‘This Socialist Party is dead, it is behind us.’

Manuel Valls, the former Socialist prime minister of France, announces on 9 May 2017 that he wishes to stand for President Emmanuel Macron’s Republique en Marche in the country’s parliamentary elections.2

Mixed messaging

‘At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is “no reason to be alarmed!”’

US President Donald Trump attacks Sadiq Khan’s response to the London Bridge/Borough Market terror attacks on 3 June 2017.3

‘I commend the strong leadership of the @MayorofLondon as he leads the city forward after this heinous attack.’

Luke Lewens, acting US ambassador to Britain, praises Khan’s response.4

Rouhani returns

‘With more than 41 million of your votes, you have pulled out the history of our country away from inertia and doubt … Yesterday, you said no to those who wanted us to return to the past.’

Hassan Rouhani reacts to his re-election as president of Iran on 20 May 2017.5

Poor June for May

‘Britain’s negotiating position in Europe has been misrepresented in the continental press. The European commission’s negotiating stance has hardened. Threats against Britain have been issued by European politicians and officials. All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the result of the general election which will take place on 8 June.’

British Prime Minister Theresa May accuses EU officials of seeking to interfere with the United Kingdom’s general election and to derail Brexit negotiations.6

‘I wanted to achieve a larger majority. That was not the result we secured.’

May reacts to the outcome of the 8 June 2017 election in which her Conservative Party unexpectedly lost its majority in the House of Commons.7

‘Yet another own goal – after Cameron now May. I thought surrealism was a Belgian invention.’

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit representative, comments on the outcome of the election.8

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2017

‘I think that, to quote a British observer of us from some years ago, bear with us; once we’ve exhausted all possible alternatives, the Americans will do the right thing. We will still be there and we will be there with you.’

US Secretary of Defense General James Mattis, paraphrasing Winston Churchill, responds to questions from the audience at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2017 on US President Donald Trump’s apparent disregard for the post-Second World War global order.9

‘A new United States administration under President Trump has cascaded a revisiting of rules and practices governing trade for our region. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is its first and heaviest casualty … In contrast, China has stepped on the pedal to push ahead with its plans to be a leader for trade in the Asia-Pacific region, if not the world. Singapore strongly supports the One Belt, One Road initiative, which recently successfully completed its inaugural summit last month.’

Ng Eng Hen, Singapore Defence Minister, discusses global threats and regional security at the Shangri-La Dialogue.10

150

Number of glaciers in the United States’ Glacier National Park in the late nineteenth century

26

Number of glaciers today11

Helmut Kohl, 1930–2017

‘A great German has died.’

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel comments on the death of Helmut Kohl, former German chancellor, on 16 June 2017.12

Trump’s Grand Tour

‘My handshake with him – it wasn’t innocent. One must show that you won’t make small concessions, even symbolic ones, but also not over-publicize things, either.’

French President Emmanuel Macron discusses his meeting with Donald Trump in Brussels on 25 May 2017, at which the two men appeared to share a combative handshake.13

‘The times in which we could rely fully on others – they are somewhat over. This is what I experienced in the last few days.’

German Chancellor Angela Merkel casts doubt on the value of Europe’s traditional alliances following a NATO summit meeting in Brussels and a G7 meeting in Italy.14

Tribute act

‘How many times do I have to warn you my lovely little neighbour boy? / You don’t really want that little toy / You know your big brother is annoyed / Trying to avoid the sight of me and install a camera in my room.’

Chinese rap group CD Rev objects to the deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea.15

Sources

1 Haroon Siddique, ‘96% Drop in EU Nurses Registering to Work in Britain since Brexit Vote’, Guardian, 12 June 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/12/96-drop-in-eu-nurses-registering-to-work-in-britain-since-brexit-vote.
2 Henry Samuel, ‘Manuel Valls Pledges to Join Emmanuel Macron as Battle for French Parliament Begins’, Telegraph, 9 May 2017, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/manuel-valls-becomes-first-high-profile-french-socialist-pledge/.
3 Donald Trump, via Twitter, 4 June 2017, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/871328428963901440.
4 Luke Lewens, via US Embassy London on Twitter, 4 June 2017, https://twitter.com/USAinUK/status/871435629569212416.
5 See Thomas Erdbrink, ‘Rouhani Wins Re-Election in Iran by a Wide Margin’, New York Times, 20 May 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/middleeast/iran-election-hassan-rouhani.html; and Emma Graham-Harrison and Saeed Kamali Dehghan, ‘Iran: Hassan Rouhani Wins Landslide in Huge Victory for Reformists’, Guardian, 20 May 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/20/iran-hassan-rouhani-set-for-landslide-in-huge-victory-for-reformists.
6 Heather Stewart and Peter Walker, ‘Theresa May Declares War on Brussels, Urging: “Let Me Fight for Britain”’, Guardian, 3 May 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/theresa-may-accuses-eu-of-meddling-in-uk-general-election.
7 Heather Stewart, ‘Theresa May Adopts Contrite Tone after Tory MPs Vent Anger over Election’, Guardian, 10 June 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-hopes-to-remain-pm-as-voters-deliver-hung-parliament.
8 Daniel Boffey and Jon Henley, ‘Yet Another Own Goal: EU Braces for Brexit Talks Delay after UK Election’, Guardian, 9 June 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/uk-shock-election-result-may-hamper-brexit-talks-eu-leaders-warn.
9 James Mattis, ‘The United States and Asia-Pacific Security: Question & Answer Session’, IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, 3 June 2017, http://www.iiss.org/en/events/shangri-la-dialogue/archive/shangri-la-dialogue-2017-a321/plenary-1-6b79/mattis-qa-4fdf.
10 Ng Eng Hen, ‘Global Threats and Regional Security’, IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, 4 June 2017, http://www.iiss.org/en/events/shangri-la-dialogue/archive/shangri-la-dialogue-2017-a321/plenary-5-d792/ng-eng-hen-65c4.
11 Oliver Milman, ‘US Glacier National Park Losing Its Glaciers with Just 26 of 150 Left’, Guardian, 11 May 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/11/us-glacier-national-park-is-losing-its-glaciers-with-just-26-of-150-left.
12 Darko Janjevic, ‘World Leaders Mourn Loss of Helmut Kohl’, Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/world-leaders-mourn-loss-of-helmut-kohl/a-39284535.
13 Alison Smale and Steven Erlanger, ‘Merkel, after Discordant G-7 Meeting, Is Looking Past Trump’, New York Times, 28 May 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/28/world/europe/angela-merkel-trump-alliances-g7-leaders.html.
14 Ibid.
15 Gerry Mullany, ‘Chinese Rappers Take Aim at American Antimissile System in South Korea’, New York Times, 12 May 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/world/asia/china-south-korea-thaad-rap-video.html.
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Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

August–September 2017

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