In the February–March 2015 issue of Survival, Chester A. Crocker, François Heisbourg, Lawrence Freedman and Matthew Kroenig discuss strategy in a world adrift; Nigel Inkster, Lawrence J. Cavaiola, David C. Gompert and Martin Libicki explore war online; Zahir Kazmi, Mark Fitzpatrick, Arundhati Ghose and Manpreet Sethi debate Pakistan's nuclear future; and Jonathan Stevenson reviews the US Senate study on CIA torture.

 

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  • The Strategic Dilemma of a World Adrift

    Strategy is a much debated notion, and there are some who doubt whether it is possible or desirable to have a coherent, grand strategy, or even a central strategic concept such as ‘containment’, in today’s global environment. The literature on strategic thought has grown even as the challenges to intellectual coherence have multiplied. In times like these, policymakers improvise in reaction to events and policy intellectuals struggle to find some...
  • Preserving Post-Cold War Europe

    During the two decades preceding the Russian annexation of Crimea, Western powers did not have a comprehensive strategy towards Russia because they perceived no need to devise one. The West did have a full-spectrum strategy for inclusion of the former members of the Warsaw Pact and the Baltic States into NATO and the European Union, to create a strategically and societally unified space in a ‘Europe whole and free’. This...
  • Facing Reality: Getting NATO Ready for a New Cold War

    Russia’s annexation of Crimea, invasion of Donbas, and continued threats to Ukraine and other European countries not only menace the stability of the post-Cold War order in Europe, but also pose a fundamental challenge to the assumptions about the strategic environment that have undergirded the NATO alliance for the past quarter of a century. Since 1989, NATO strategy has been premised on a set of beliefs, each one of which has...
  • A Positive Stalemate for Ukraine

    ‘We Shall Beat Our Swords Into Plowshares’, reads the inscription on a bronze statue presented by the Soviet Union to the United Nations in 1959, permanently installed in front of UN Headquarters on the East River. Symbolising the struggle for peace, it was sculpted by a Ukrainian, Evgeny Vuchetich. The road to peace after the erection of the monument in New York was bumpy, to say the least, but by...
  • Noteworthy

    $81 million Amount received by contractor psychologists James Mitchell and Bruce Jessen for developing and implementing the CIA’s detention and interrogation programme between 2002 and 2009 $40 million Amount spent by the US government to investigate this programme between 2010 and 2014
  • Cyber House Rules: On War, Retaliation and Escalation

    When it comes to cyber war, the United States is ambivalent. While persuaded of the utility of offensive cyber operations, it dreads where they might lead. The advantages of cyber war are swamped by the disadvantages if it cannot be kept under control – and there are nagging doubts about whether it can. That computer systems are often interconnected and multi-purpose, and that there are no sharp ‘firebreaks’ in cyber...
  • Cyber Attacks in La-La Land

    Hollywood has not been slow to appreciate and exploit the cinematic potential of the threat from cyber attacks. Films such as Live Free or Die Hard contain graphic depictions of the chaos caused when hackers take control of US transportation networks, the stock market and natural-gas and power grids on the Eastern Seaboard. Hollywood did not, however, anticipate that it would become the target of the first-ever alleged state-sponsored destructive...
  • Can Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers be ‘Normalised’?

    Mark Fitzpatrick, a non-proliferation analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, is among the latest to hazard solutions to Pakistan’s nuclear dangers and myriad other problems. In his Adelphi book, Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers, he identifies four specific dangers presented by Pakistan’s nuclear programme: the potential for nuclear use; for a nuclear arms race; for nuclear terrorism; and for onward proliferation and nuclear accidents. After an...
  • Normalising the Non-proliferation Regime

    The non-proliferation regime’s long-running discrimination against Pakistan peaked in 2008, when the 48 member states of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) granted an exceptional trade waiver to India. The group’s application of country-specific criteria for civil nuclear-technology cooperation has the potential to erode its credibility, and suggests the regime operates on the principle that, as George Orwell wrote, ‘all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others’...
  • A Reply by the Author

    In their otherwise thorough response to my book, Arundhati Ghose and Manpreet Sethi mistake a premise of my recommendation that Pakistan should be offered a nuclear cooperation deal akin to the one provided to India. ‘Akin to’ does not mean ‘the same as’. In my book I argued that Pakistan should be required to meet a higher standard because of its dismal record of nuclear stewardship. I suggested, for example...
  • Is Russia an Outside Power in the Gulf?

    When Russia is invoked in analysis of outside powers’ role in the Middle East, it is often thought of in two related ways: either as a shrunken Soviet Union or as a potential regional security guarantor should the United States abdicate that role. Following the 2013 IISS Manama Dialogue, a Gulf leader was quoted as saying: ‘the Russians have proved they are reliable friends … As a result, some states...
  • Power and Order

    World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History Henry Kissinger. London: Penguin, 2014. £25.00. 420 pp. Henry Kissinger’s latest book, World Order, offers advice on the big issues facing American foreign policy, including Iran, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and China. It is impressive to observe a nonagenarian worrying about positioning himself in order to stay true to his analysis without straying too far...
  • Exceptional Abhorrence

    Committee Study of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Detention and Interrogation Program  Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. US Government Printing Office, 2014. 711 pp. It has been known for some time that from 2002–7, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) tracked and captured terrorist suspects, held them at various ‘black sites’ outside US territory and therefore not subject to the United States constitution, and employed ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ (EITs, as abbreviated by the US government)...
  • Politics and Gender in Modern Australia

    My Story Julia Gillard. London: Bantam Press, 2014. £25.00. 512 pp. When Julia Gillard, then Australia’s somewhat unlikely prime minister, addressed the Australian parliament on 9 October 2012, the situation was tense. Her minority government was foundering at the polls, and the man her Labor Party had backed as Speaker of the House of Representatives was facing a motion of non-confidence after comparing, in a leaked text message, parts of the female...
  • The Uncertainties of Strategy

    Strategy: A History Lawrence Freedman. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. £25.00. 751pp. In Strategy: A History, Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King’s College London and author of many books, asks rhetorically, ‘can the same word apply to battle plans, political campaigning, and business deals – not to mention means of coping with the stresses of everyday life – without becoming meaningless?’ (p. x). In The Direction of War, historian Hew...
  • Book Reviews

    Politics and International Relations Pierre Hassner Comparative Peace Processes Jonathan Tonge. Cambridge: Polity, 2014. £17.99/$26.95.  228 pp.  The concept of ‘peace process’ increasingly provokes an ironic or sceptical reaction, after decades of such processes producing little discernible progress, as in the Israeli–Palestinian case. Jonathan Tonge’s Comparative Peace Processes has the great merit of taking the concept seriously, submitting it to very precise analysis and putting it in perspective through several case studies (Palestine, Lebanon, Northern...
  • Brief Notices

    Politics and International Relations Dividing Divided States Gregory F. Treverton. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2014. $49.95. 234 pp.  Using case studies from Africa, Europe and Asia, Treverton explores the primary concerns shared by all post-secession policymakers. He asks how the root causes of secessionist projects affect post-conflict policies in areas such as security, citizenship laws and resource management, and outlines suggestions for the management of future post-secession transitions. Freedom’s Right: The Social...
  • Showing the Flag

    I At the second annual Arctic Circle Conference in Reykjavik in autumn 2014, the UK made quite a splash. The Arctic Circle organisation was launched in 2013 to increase participation in Arctic dialogue and strengthen the international focus on the future of the Arctic, and to date its conferences have featured plenary sessions highlighting the contributions of seven countries, including France, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. But the British plenary on 31...
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Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

February-March 2015

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