In the August–September issue of Survival, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Fred Swaniker, Michael Peel and Chris Alden discuss development in Africa; Elizabeth Pond analyses Serbia’s European win; and Seth G. Jones explores rising jihadism in Syria. Also in the issue: Mark Fitzpatrick on Hassan Rowhani’s election victory in Iran; Jasper Pandza on China’s nuclear fuel cycle and proliferation risks; and Jonathan Shaw on the military dynamics of Othello.

In the August–September issue of Survival, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Fred Swaniker, Michael Peel and Chris Alden discuss development in Africa; Elizabeth Pond analyses Serbia’s European win; and Seth G. Jones explores rising jihadism in Syria. Also in the issue: Mark Fitzpatrick on Hassan Rowhani’s election victory in Iran; Jasper Pandza on China’s nuclear fuel cycle and proliferation risks; and Jonathan Shaw on the military dynamics of Othello.

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  • Serbia Reinvents Itself

    Back in the 1990s, Ivica Dacic, known as ‘Little Slobo’, was the spokesman who justified strongman Slobodan Milosevic’s conquests of neighbouring non-Serbs in the Balkan wars. Aleksandar Vucic, as the information minister of Yugoslav President Milosevic, was the hatchet man for the media who defended the vast ethnic cleansing by paramilitary police of more than 60% of the 90%-majority Albanians living in the Serbian province of Kosovo. Tomislav Nikolic was...
  • Reinforce Rowhani’s Mandate for Change

    Foreign reactions to Hassan Rowhani’s 14 June election as Iran’s next president ranged from delight to dismay. A better response is cautious optimism. Rowhani will not be able to solve the nuclear crisis. Nor is he likely to do much that will make it worse than would be the case under any other Iranian leader. But he has a mandate for change and a disposition towards pragmatism which provide a...
  • Muddling Through in Iraq

    Writing for the Washington Post in April, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki argued that ‘the United States has not “lost” Iraq. Instead, in Iraq, the United States has found a partner for our shared strategic concerns and our common efforts on energy, economics and the promotion of peace and democracy.’ A lot of people in the United States do not see it that way. They regard Iraq’s democratisation efforts over...
  • Climate Change: Strategies of Denial

    Climate change caused by global warming is, arguably, a serious, even existential, threat to the world order and to the welfare of humanity. No one really knows; there are many uncertainties around the rate of warming and the severity of its environmental and social impacts, and hence the most effective, and cost-effective, ways to avoid or ameliorate them. But over the last five or six years, public discourse has been...
  • Noteworthy

    Selective attention ‘It is hereby ordered that the Custodian of Records shall produce to the National Security Agency ... all call detail records or “telephony metadata” created by Verizon for communications (i) between the United States and abroad; or (ii) wholly within the United States, including local telephone calls.’ Extract from a US Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court order published by the Guardian. ‘This is not a situation where we simply go into the...
  • Syria’s Growing Jihad

    The escalating war in Syria presents a growing threat to the Middle East and the West more broadly. Led by groups like Jabhat al-Nusra (the Victory Front), an al-Qaeda-affiliated organisation, Syria is becoming a training ground for foreign fighters and a microcosm of sectarian conflict. Over the past year, an increasing number of fighters have travelled to Syria from other areas – including the West – in an effort to...
  • Hope and Disappointment: Iran and the Arab Spring

    Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Cairo on 5 February 2013 was, potentially, an historic event. Iran and Egypt have had decidedly difficult relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, mirroring the suspicion with which the Iranian regime has been treated across the region. The advent of an Islamic government in Egypt provided an opportunity to improve the situation. But the visit was a bust. Indeed, relations have, if anything, worsened...
  • Hizbullah and the Iranian Nuclear Programme

    In the abundant recent analysis of a nuclearising Iran, scholars and other experts have identified several dangers. The Iranian regime could bully regional rivals, increase its influence in Iraq, further challenge US power in the Gulf and set off a proliferation cascade. Another oft-cited danger is that, protected from retaliation by its nuclear shield, Iran will step up its support for proxy groups in the Middle East. Even without increased...
  • The Arab World’s Response to an Israeli Attack on Iran

    In a television interview in November 2011, former head of Mossad Meir Dagan warned that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could lead to a regional war involving actors such as Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a different view. In October 2012, he told French magazine Paris Match that such an attack would stabilise the Middle East: Five minutes after, contrary to what...
  • Securing Development: Challenges of Economic Inclusion

    Editor’s Note Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is a renowned development economist and reformer who has served the Nigerian government and World Bank for most of her career. In her current role, Dr Okonjo-Iweala is responsible for managing the finances of Africa’s most populous nation and one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. She gave the 2013 Oppenheimer Lecture at Arundel House, London, on 19 June 2013. I am deeply honoured...
  • Africa’s Rising Economies

    Africa is booming. Of that, there is little doubt. One feels it every time one lands in Lagos, Addis Ababa, Nairobi or Accra. Hotels are filled to the brim and business-class seats are sometimes hard to come by. Companies are struggling to fill executive positions because they are growing so rapidly. The energy on the streets is palpable, and the rest of the world is noticing. A recent issue of...
  • Africa and the Gulf

    Gulf states and sub-Saharan African countries have begun to forge closer economic ties over the past few years. This process, amid financial crisis in the West and strong growth in Africa, provides a platform for an important new inter-regional geopolitical power play. If the extraordinary changes in North Africa over the past two years have been a test of Gulf countries’ tactical economic agility, the slower political evolution in sub-Saharan...
  • The Eurasian Sea

    Maritime disputes in Eastern Asia have been sending odd ripples of excitement through Western Europe for the past few years. Experts and policymakers claim that Europe cannot stay aloof. Some speculate that China might cut off trade routes in the event of a conflict and that Europe needs to collaborate with the United States to keep them open. A few go so far as to say that Europe’s credibility as...
  • China’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Proliferation Risks

    Just days after the March 2011 Fukushima accident, China’s State Council suspended approvals of new nuclear power plants and created a range of rigorous measures aimed at improving the country’s nuclear-safety provisions. It was not until October 2012 that the council cautiously lifted the ban on new construction. Then-Premier Wen Jiabao announced that all newly approved reactors would need to meet third-generation criteria, meaning that they should have certain advanced...
  • The Cold War and Cuban Intelligence

    Castro’s Secrets: The CIA and Cuba’s Intelligence Machine Brian Latell. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012. £16.99/$27.00. 288 pp. On 25 April 2013, US government judicial officials unsealed an indictment from 2004, charging Marta Rita Velazquez, a former legal officer at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) of spying for the Cuban government. In 2002 Velazquez had prudently fled to Sweden, which does not extradite individuals accused of espionage to...
  • Othello and the Unknown Military

    It began with an e-mail. Nick Hytner, director of the National Theatre, was about to put on a production of Othello, a play set in the context of a general running a garrison, and he wanted to speak to someone who had done so to know what it was like. Mutual friends put us in touch and the ensuing lunch quickly dealt with the expected questions. But what really caught...
  • Book Reviews

    Africa Chris Alden Battleground Africa: The Congo Crisis, 1960–1965 Lise Namikas. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2012. £50.95/$60.00. 288 pp. This well-researched monograph by Lise Namikas depicts the five-year struggle that gripped the Congo in its transition from Belgian colony to independent state. Using archival material drawn from US, European and Russian sources, Namikas brings to life the unfolding tragedy in Africa’s largest territory, from the mercurial conduct of Patrice Lumumba to the...
  • Brief Notices

    Africa Getting Somalia Wrong? Faith and War in a Shattered State Mary Harper. London: Zed Books, 2012. £12.99/$19.95. 217 pp. Somalia is often presented as a failed state, but Harper contends that this characterisation overlooks alternative forms of business, justice and local politics that, she says, are flourishing. She warns of the consequences if the international community continues to misperceive the country. South Sudan: From Revolution to Independence Matthew...
  • Drug Wars

    I In June 2012, an American drug enforcement agent shot and killed a suspected drug trafficker during a raid on a smuggling operation in Honduras, the impoverished Central American country with the world’s highest murder rate. Just a few weeks earlier, Honduran security officials, shadowed by US agents as part of Operation Anvil, accidentally killed four civilians, including two pregnant women, in the country’s remote and now drugs-and-thugs-infested Mosquito Coast...
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Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

August–September 2013

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