Turbulence in the Taiwan Strait

The election of Tsai Ing-wen as president of Taiwan by an electorate increasingly inclined towards independence has made Beijing less tolerant of strategic ambiguity and more apt to attempt to impose reunification. Washington may need to undertake more proactive diplomacy to stave off a military confrontation.

Nigeria’s security under Buhari

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has made progress in containing the jihadist group Boko Haram in the northeast, but in other parts of the country he faces burgeoning security challenges.

Venezuela’s post-Chavez torment

Venezuela's dire economic situation has produced violent protests, looting and calls for intransigent President Nicolas Maduro's recall.

Pakistan: a more positive trajectory

The past 18 months have been an atypically salutary period for Pakistan. Democracy has deepened, civilian–military relations have been stable, and the economy has grown.

Turkey: the attempted coup and its troubling aftermath

The military coup attempted in Turkey on 15 July 2016 fizzled out quickly. But President Tayyip Erdogan is using it as a pretext to purge the government, judiciary and military.

European air combat capabilities

The UK's vote to leave the EU risks worrying NATO allies about its reliability as a defence partner. To allay this concern, the UK could expand its collaboration with Europe on aerospace projects.

Mozambique and Zimbabwe

Due to various problems with getting help from China, both Mozambique and Zimbabwe may need to reinvigorate appeals for assistance from Western donors. These would come with relatively stringent governance and economic conditions.

Colombia: the fraught end of a long war

The ceasefire announced between the Colombian government and the FARC, ending 50 years of destructive war, will be followed soon by a final accord and a plebiscite, which is likely to ratify the accord. While these developments are welcome, the Colombian people remain resentful of the FARC's legitimisation and sceptical about the accord's sustainability. Implementation will be a stiff and ongoing challenge.