Social divisions and rising terrorist violence in Turkey

In the past 18 months, Turkey has not appreciably reduced Kurdish militant groups' terrorist capabilities or addressed the root causes of their grievances. The country has grown less tolerant of Islamic State activity, and friction between Turkey and its NATO allies has impeded intelligence-sharing about terrorist threats. Accordingly, the level of terrorist violence in Turkey appears set to rise in the months ahead, potentially leading to domestic instability and severe damage to the country’s social fabric.

Africa and the International Criminal Court

The decision by three African states to begin withdrawing from the ICC has raised fears of a mass exodus. Can it remain a viable institution on the continent?

Trump’s fraught national-security transition

President-elect Donald Trump's enthusiasm for consequential policy decisions suggests that he has a greater taste for the hands-on formulation of foreign policy than is commonly appreciated.

US–Mexico relations under Trump

If Donald Trump fulfils his strident promises on immigration and trade with Mexico, the prospects of left-wing, populist candidates in the 2018 Mexican presidential election will likely improve.

The Islamic State and Southeast Asia

Up to 1,000 Southeast Asians have travelled to the Middle East to fight for ISIS. While some may return and engage in terrorist operations, the greater threat is homegrown extremism.

Bolivia: Morales’s growing unpopularity

There appears to be growing eagerness for Bolivian President Evo Morales to step down, but he has vowed to continue as head of state.

China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea

China's defiance of the arbitration tribunal ruling overwhelmingly rejecting its extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea has exposed competition between the United States and China.

North Korea: US and allied military options

North Korean nuclear bomb and ballistic missile tests may require the United States and its regional allies to take a harder look at military options against North Korea. Pre-emptive or preventive attack is fraught with downsides. But uncertainties surrounding deterrence and worries about potential North Korean brinkmanship could keep that option salient.