Turkey: the attempted coup and its troubling aftermath

The military coup attempted in Turkey on 15 July 2016 fizzled out quickly. But President Tayyip Erdogan has accused a political rival, exiled Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, and his followers of engineering the coup without substantiation, and is using it as a pretext to purge the government, judiciary and military. This reaction could lead to sustained domestic instability that would strain Turkey's international relations, exacerbate its democratic deficit and damage its social fabric.

European air combat capabilities

The UK's vote to leave the EU risks worrying NATO allies about its reliability as a defence partner. To allay this concern, the UK could expand its collaboration with Europe on aerospace projects.

Mozambique and Zimbabwe

Due to various problems with getting help from China, both Mozambique and Zimbabwe may need to reinvigorate appeals for assistance from Western donors. These would come with relatively stringent governance and economic conditions.

Colombia: the fraught end of a long war

The ceasefire announced between the Colombian government and the FARC will be followed soon by a final accord. Implementation will be a stiff and ongoing challenge.

NATO’s look East

Russia's military modernisation and aggressiveness have prompted NATO to refocus on European security, but differences remain among allies over the specific measures required to ensure effective deterrence.

Jordan's pragmatism and current challenges

With a bulging refugee population, the threat of jihadist infiltration and a weak economy, Jordan balance its cooperation with the US and with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states.

Iraq's political turmoil

Massive political protests in Iraq have mobilised the majority Shia population. There is a salient risk that popular demands will be pursued through violence.

Brazil's political and economic crisis

Brazilian Interim President Michel Temer will probably serve out impeached President Dilma Rousseff's term. He is compelled to deal urgently with Brazil's distressed economy and scandalous corruption. But his lack of an electoral mandate, unpopularity and initial obduracy in appointing an all-white, all-male cabinet – perceived negatively as 'business as usual' backroom politics – cast doubt on his ability to do so effectively.