June 4th 2004
By Azrin Asmani and Woon Wui Tek
AS A high-level security conference gets under way in Singapore later today, analysts do not expect United States Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - who some see as the 'star' of the show - to get to do all the talking.
While he is expected to outline Washington's strategy in the Asia-Pacific and plans for Iraq, the region's representatives are likely to use the opportunity to remind the US to work more closely with its friends and temper its unilateral instincts.
According to analysts contacted by The Straits Times, defence ministers and security officials congregating for the Asia Security Conference: The Shangri La Dialogue would welcome assurances that the US will remain fully engaged in this region.
But with anti-American sentiment high in some places, delegates will also broach the need for a multilateral approach to issues like the war on terrorism, security of sea lanes and weapons proliferation - all topics Mr Rumsfeld is likely to raise.
'Partners want to impress on the US that it needs to work in a collaborative manner and in partnership,' said Dr Andrew Tan of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies.
With US presidential election looming in November and recent setbacks in Iraq, 'the backdrop is there for Mr Rumsfeld to listen as much as he speaks'.
The third annual dialogue, which runs until Sunday, is organised by respected London-based think-tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
It is the only regional event of its kind and some 200 senior officials and academics - including defence ministers or their deputies from more than 20 countries, are expected.
Washington has upped the level of its representation this year with Mr Rumsfeld's attendance. Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz led the US team in previous years.
He is also expected - as may also be the case for visiting ministers from Malaysia, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, among others - to have bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the conference.
Analysts suggest he may reassure allies over the transfer of 5,000 US troops from South Korea to Iraq. No date has been set for their return to the potentially volatile North-east Asian peninsula.
IISS director John Chipman said Mr Rumsfeld might also emphasise how such changes are made 'in close consultation with the host country', and that agreement had been reached over how US force levels will evolve over time.
But he also felt that multilateralism may not be as 'acute' a concern here as it has been in Europe.
One topic that did send sparks flying recently was that of the security of strategic waterways, including the Malacca Straits.
This after a top US commander spoke of a maritime plan to counter terrorism which could include deploying US Marines in the area.
Both Malaysia and Indonesia protested strongly.
While not on the conference agenda, it is the kind of issue delegates could serve up to Mr Rumsfeld as they remind him of the need for consultation, analysts said.
Institute of South-east Asian Studies visiting senior research fellow Michael Richardson believes that Malaysia, in particular, and Indonesia 'will respond positively to careful consultation by the US, behind closed doors and without megaphone diplomacy'.
He expects Mr Rumsfeld will clarify that Washington's initiative is 'very much a work in progress and will be the subject of extensive consultation with nations interested in taking part'.
