June 5th 2003
John Brandon
Asian shipping at risk
SINGAPORE Asian and Western intelligence officials are worried that terrorists may seek to emulate the pirates whose attacks on international shipping have tripled in the past decade. Al Qaeda and its affiliates have the potential to inflict enormous damage on maritime trade.
Southeast Asia is the area most prone to acts of piracy, accounting for half of all attacks worldwide. Indonesia's waters are considered the world's most dangerous, particularly since the Indonesian Navy lacks the resources to patrol its waters. According to the International Maritime Bureau, an agency of the International Chamber of Commerce, there were 28 reported incidents of piracy in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2003. The other three worst affected countries are Bangladesh, India and Nigeria.
The main focus of concern for officials guarding against possible terrorist attacks is the Strait of Malacca, a narrow waterway, 1,000 kilometers long (600 miles), flanked by Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia through which more than half of the world's commerce passes, including two-thirds of its oil and liquefied natural gas, much of it destined for Japan, China and South Korea.
Since February, there has been a disturbing trend of pirates attacking chemical tankers. In one attack, a group of 10 pirates boarded a chemical tanker in the Strait of Malacca, captured the crew and began navigating the vessel. The fact that pirates can take control of a chemical tanker is very worrying.
Just as terrorists used planeloads of fuel to crash into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, freighters carrying large cargos of chemicals or inflammable petroleum could be hijacked and used in terrorist attacks. If such an attack took place in the Strait of Malacca or another major channel for international shipping, trade could be seriously disrupted.
If terrorists closed the Strait of Malacca, vessels carrying oil to Japan, China and South Korea - which import more than 80 percent of their oil from the Gulf - would have to be diverted through other Indonesian waterways, adding an extra 1000 miles to the journey.
This would spark a crisis in world oil markets and send insurance premiums in the highly competitive shipping industry skyrocketing. Japan is so concerned that it reportedly plans to use its coast guard to escort oil tankers sailing to and from the Middle East. China plans to follow Japan and Korea and establish a big oil stockpile for use in emergencies.
A terrorist attack that closed the Strait of Malacca would also have a devastating impact on Southeast Asia's economies. And if such an attack involved highly toxic chemicals or nuclear materials, millions of people in the region could be harmed.
Al Qaeda has the ability to carry out such an attack. At least one of its Southeast Asian affiliates, the Jemaah Islamiyah, planned to strike at U.S. naval vessels using the Strait of Malacca and the port of Singapore before its members were arrested in Singapore.
U.S. intelligence officials believe Al Qaeda controls more than a dozen cargo ships. It is difficult for intelligence organizations to find and track these vessels given the extent of document fraud in the shipping industry. It is not uncommon for ships to be repainted and re-registered under fictitious names. Maritime certificate fraud is pervasive in the Philippines and Indonesia, where terrorist organizations linked to Al Qaeda are known to exist.
Southeast Asian countries need to work closely with major powers, particularly the United States and Japan, to develop a common strategy to combat piracy. Ministers gathering later this month in Phnom Penh for the annual meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum on security should address this issue.
In addition to devoting more resources to the problem, members of the forum should follow the lead of Japan and China by signing the United Nations convention that allows them to prosecute pirates caught in their waters for acts of piracy committed in another country's jurisdiction.
Failure to combat piracy effectively and prevent terrorists from copying the pirates may deal a blow to Southeast Asia that could reverberate well beyond the region.
The writer directs the international relations program of the Asia Foundation in Washington. This is a personal comment.
