June 5th 2003
Alan Dupont
Overhauling defense
SINGAPORE Asia's security environment is undergoing its most profound and potentially far-reaching transformation since the early days of the Cold War. If defeating the menace of a proselytizing communism defined the Western security agenda in the second half of the 20th century, combating international terrorism and the associated spread of weapons of mass destruction have become today's strategic priorities for virtually all governments in the region.
This was evident at a recent meeting of regional defense policymakers in Singapore that also included the United States, Britain, France, Australia and New Zealand. The meeting was remarkable for the broad consensus reached among the participating defense ministers and senior officials concerning the principal threats to regional order, although there are clear differences about how best to deal with them.
Supporters of the more robust U.S. approach to confronting the challenge of rogue states, terrorists and those spreading nuclear, chemical or biological weapons argue that the judicious use of military force is necessary to deter and, if necessary, eliminate the purveyors of the new evils. Skeptics worry that the Bush administration is too willing to seek military solutions to what are fundamentally political and social problems. They believe that muscular unilateralism is not the answer.
Both arguments have merit. The United States should craft a more balanced security strategy for the region and devote more time to persuasion and coalition-building. It also needs to clarify and qualify the Bush doctrine of preemption that is widely misunderstood in Asia as a strategic imperative rather than an option of last resort.
On the other hand, those who reject the use of military force must explain what the alternatives are when terrorists patently have no interest in negotiations, and when states such as North Korea repeatedly flout international conventions and pursue policies that threaten the security of their neighbors.
The larger point is that the Asian security agenda is undergoing a once-in-a-generation rethink as threats emerge that are more diverse, complex and amorphous than those of the past. It is axiomatic that attitudinal shifts are always followed by policy changes, but when change is initiated by the preeminent power of the day then the strategic impact is correspondingly greater.
The United States is re-engaging with Asia but in a very different way than before. Rather than defending the status quo, the Bush administration has become the principal agent of change, much as China was in the 1950s. In this sense, America can be considered a revolutionary power driven by a steely resolve to prevent another terrorist attack.
For evidence one only has to look at President George W. Bush's determination to bring about regime change in North Korea and his decision to initiate the most far-reaching restructuring of U.S. forces in South Korea for 50 years. American bases are mushrooming in Central Asia, where two years ago there were none. A substantial reconfiguration of America's military presence in East Asia - where about 100,000 U.S. troops are stationed, mainly in Japan and South Korea - is likely later this year.
Bush continues to pressure Southeast Asia to do more in the war against terrorism and is dispensing American largesse and goodwill accordingly. Countries that take a firm stance are being rewarded while those who do not are ignored or marginalized.
Two of Asia's leading powers, Japan and China, are also showing signs of making significant strategic adjustments, but of a vastly different kind. It is striking the degree to which Chinese leaders have been prepared to accommodate the United States since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, in marked contrast to the prickly anti-Americanism shown by China in the spy plane incident of April 2001.
Japan's security thinking is in the midst of a major reorientation, away from its pacifist tradition and toward a more tough-minded, internationalist stance. In recent months Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has signaled a much harder line toward North Korea and has publicly declared his intention to amend the constitution and explicitly recognize the military role of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces - a declaration that would have been inconceivable a year ago.
The writer directs the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defense Studies Center in Canberra.
