May 30th 2003
Defence Ministers from about 20 countries are in Singapore for the annual Asia Security Conference.
Organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a leading security think-tank based in London, it is the only inter-governmental forum in Asia focussing on defence and security issues.
It comes against the backdrop of resurgent terrorist activity and a wide range of issues are expected to be discussed.
Being Asia's first major security conference since the end of the war in Iraq, several key concerns, like the US's strategy in Asia, are also expected to be raised.
For more on this, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to Dr Tim Huxley (TH), senior fellow for Asia-Pacific security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who is participating in the conference.
TH: "There've been some quite important developments in the regional security landscape over the last year since the last Asia Security Conference was held in Singapore last May. The main issue to hit the headlines of course, has been terrorism with the Bali attack in which more than 200 people were killed last October and the subsequent much more effective responses by a number of Southeast Asian countries in coordination with extra-regional partners, particularly Australia and the US to that emerging threat of terrorism. Also the issue of nuclear proliferation and long-range missile proliferation in the Korean Peninsula where North Korea's efforts to speed up its development of nuclear weapons has become a really worrying and potentially destabilising issue in the northern part of East Asia. And at the same time, these developments have taken place against the background of issues which have been there for some time. Problems of maritime security, piracy in the Straits of Malacca and continuing territorial disputes. But one issue which has been raised by the war in Iraq is the United States strategy in this region and how that's going to affect regional countries in the future."
BJ: Picking up on the US strategy in this region, there've been reports that American troops may be relocated from Northeast Asia and troop levels in Southeast Asian countries like Australia, Singapore and the Philippines may be boosted, but there are questions about the veracity of these reports, aren't there?
TH: "I suspect, actually, that you're right. The issue has been rather overblown in terms of its press coverage. I'd be really surprised if the United States was seriously considering moving more that a minor proportion of its forces from Northeast to Southeast Asia. I don't think governments in this region are quite ready for such a major shift. But I think we have already seen some indications of a slight trend in that direction over the last year or so. The US has become much more involved in the security of the Philippines with a major deployment of troops, particularly Special Forces to take on the Abu Sayyaf group last year and the US has also held many more exercises this year with Philippine Armed Forces."
BJ: Now, the Asia Security Conference is going to be attended by defence ministers and armed forces chiefs from 20 countries and last year, we did see some very crucial meetings take place on the sidelines of the conference. Last year's dialogue actually helped avert the risk of war on the Indian subcontinent. Any opportunities for similar progress on other fronts considering the issues before us today?
TH: "One thing that the forum does is provide opportunities for the ministers and officials to hold bilateral meetings. It's not just a question of big plenary sessions in which all the national delegations participate. The conference last year provided an opportunity for the Indian and Pakistani ministers involved to have bilateral meetings and we like to think that contributed in some way to defusing tensions at that time. This year the issues are different."
BJ: This comes against the backdrop of resurgent terrorist activity as evidenced by the suicide bomb attacks in Saudi Arabia and Morocco and you mentioned that the fight against terrorism in Southeast Asia will be a major point of discussion. What are the specific elements that need to be looked at on this issue?
TH: "I'm sure that there will be some very substantive agreements and understandings reached behind the scenes. We're not likely to see any sort of major formal declarations on terrorism. In fact, I'm not sure that grandstand declarations on terrorism are the best way forward. I think a lot of the more important elements of the struggle against terrorism involve quite low-key cooperation behind the scenes, particularly in matters such as clamping down on the financing of terrorist organisations, exchanging information and intelligence, so I'm sure that some of the officials and ministers involved in this conference will take the opportunity to firm up some of those measures."
Dr Tim Huxley, senior fellow for Asia-Pacific security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who is in Singapore attending the Asia Security Conference.
