THE 4th IISS REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT
THE MANAMA DIALOGUE
Manama Saturday 8 December 2007
ENERGY AND REGIONAL SECURITY
Yuriko Koike
Former Minister of Defense, Japan
When I returned to my university, Cairo University, where I studied sociology there in the 1970s, compared to today’s Cairo University the most surprising thing was the number of students. When I was in Cairo University in the early 1970s, there were about 100k enrolled students, which was big enough at that time. Today, the university boasts the enrolment of 250k students at Cairo University. As for the Egyptian population, in the 1970s it was about 50 million, and that has increased to 73 million today. By 2050 it will be a population of about 115 million.
I visit the Gaza Strip and West Bank from time to time - it used to be a very small town. Today, unfortunately, because of the division by the walls, the smaller and narrower the area they have, the more populated it is, and the less opportunity they have to work. When thinking about energy and sustainability, and the regional security, those demographic issues are very important.
I attended this conference last year, and many changes have been witnessed in the global and regional environment since that time, including my own political environment. Against this backdrop I would like to talk about energy security, while touching upon the climate change issues as well. For your information, I served as the Minister of Environment for three years. The biggest change between this year and last year is the price spike of oil. Last December the price WTI was $62 per barrel, but the price has now increased to about $90 per barrel. In terms of Dubai crude it was about $59 per barrel last year, while now it is $84 dollars per barrel. In Japan this price hike has come to affect gas prices to taxi fares, and the cost of many other commodities and services. We are literally about to face a highly charged atmosphere.
The oil price spike hits developing countries hard, especially those with scant natural resources. When I participated in the International Conference of Women’s Leadership for Sustainable Development last month, one African woman leader cried out, we cannot afford to buy oil any longer. She said that women in her country now cut down trees and burn them for day-to-day cooking, because of the oil price hike. I am concerned that if this situation continues the price spike will affect people’s everyday living, especially in developing countries, and will subsequently cause negative spill-over effects to other issues, such as global economic growth. Here, we know face another divide, or gap, that goes beyond the so-called north south issue. The new divide is now seen among the developing countries, and is the gap between natural resources, haves and have-nots.
One of the reasons for this price hike, setting the market speculation aspect aside, is the rapid mid to long-term increase in global oil demand, especially that led by China and India. Rapid increase in energy demand and consumption will naturally have a grave negative impact on the global environment. Global warming has become one of the top priority issues in the world. It has been discussed, not only in the environmental arena, such as UNFCCC, but also in other various international fora, at the summit level, such as G8, APEC, and the East Asian Summit. Furthermore, to my great surprised, global environment issues, including climate change, were discussed at the recent OPEC Summit. The importance of the role of governments and international cooperation in tackling the issue was squarely highlighted. We should welcome such global political momentums aiming at solving the climate security issue, since, if we do not act now, negative effects caused by climate change will be multiplied. Meanwhile, establishing a new framework beyond the Kyoto Protocol is an urgent task. The protocol expires at the end of the year 2012.
Japan has been active in working on other countries, and it thus proposed the idea of setting a new venue to examine a post-Kyoto Protocol in framework in the COP13, now held in Bali, Indonesia. Japan will chair the G8 summit meeting next year in Hokkaido, in which global environment and climate change will be one of the major agendas. As the chair, Japan will spare no efforts in establishing a new framework towards the solution of climate change issues.
Development of renewable energy in addition to enhancement of energy efficiency holds the key to addressing rapid energy demand growth and climate change issues, which become more critical by this demand for growth. Japan has state of the art technology in energy conservation and renewable energy, and we know that the whole world is counting on them. I myself remember well that when I accompanied Prime Minister Abe in his visit to the Gulf States this spring, many leaders asked for our support in the field of renewable energy technology. Also, a Japanese consortium announced the concept in the name of Cool City in a symposium held in the UAE, in which I also participated a couple of weeks ago.
Cool City aims at creating a sustainable community project based on the principles of achieving eco friendly infrastructure and energy consumption by concentrating leading Japanese technologies. Such efforts will certainly contribute to resolving climate change issues, while providing sustainable demand of energy. At the same time their efforts will be conductive to closing the divide between north and south, and that between natural resources haves and have-nots. That will accordingly stabilise the world economy, thereby bringing about positive effects on the Middle Eastern countries. In terms of energy security, a stable supply of energy is critical while we provide stable and suitable energy demand, especially a long-term stable supply of oil from the Middle East, where 60% of the world’s oil reserves, and 30% of the total oil production exists. As Japan imports 90% of its total oil from the Middle East, stability of the region is vital. Therefore, Japan will make its utmost efforts to support achieving stability of the Middle East. As then Prime Minister Abe announced this spring, Japan will step up its efforts to create a multi-layered relationship based upon solid energy relations with the Middle Eastern countries, so as to meet the needs of both sides, and to deepen our interdependency.
As for the Middle East peace process, we welcome the developments seen in the Annapolis conference. We will continue our efforts, and will make every endeavour to realise our proposed corridor for peace and prosperity, with aims to develop Jordan and Bali through regional cooperation. We are encouraged by high appreciation shown by the Middle Eastern countries to this initiative.
Iraq is still on its way to achieve stability and reconstruction. Japan, together with the international community will provide full support, which promotes the Iraqi people’s own efforts to rebuild their nation. At the same time, we must have Afghanistan stable, so as not to make it a hotbed of terrorism again. Therefore, we will continue our maximum assistance to Afghanistan’s efforts to reconstruct itself.
With regard to Iran’s nuclear issue, the international community must take a unified firm stand with a view to achieving stability in the Middle East, and to avoid a negative effect on the international non-proliferation regime. Japan would like to urge Iran to meet the demand of the international community. Also, in the context of solidly maintaining the non-proliferation regime, let me touch upon North Korea. The North Korean nuclear issue poses a grave threat, not only to the peace and safety of Japan, but also to that of East Asia, as well as the international community as a whole. North Korea has committed to the disablement of nuclear facilities as well as to complete and correct deceleration of all its nuclear programmes in the previous six-party talks. The international community should not take our vigilant eyes off North Korea until it fully complies with its commitment. At the same time, Japan jointly, with the international community, has been strongly urging North Korea to resolve the abduction issue.
When we turn our eyes to energy in the Middle East, securing safety of energy related infrastructure, especially sea lines of communication, is essential in achieving our stable supply of energy. Dr Narayanan has just mentioned this issue, so I am not going to prolong my speech. The law to enable our refuelling activities in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Gulf by our maritime self-defence force, to support the international community’s fight against terrorism, was expired about a month and a half ago. While the activities have to be paused due to our domestic policies, I am fully convinced that Japan’s refuelling activities have formed an essential basis for the international community’s concerted efforts to prevent proliferation of terrorism. Such activities also have positive spill over effects on the stability of the Middle East, as well as security of the sea lines of communication. Accordingly, I will, together with the government and the ruling parties, make efforts to resume the refuelling activities as soon as possible.
Let me conclude my remarks by stressing that Japan is fully committed to actively and vigorously contributing to achieving these core stabilities. Thank you very much.
