Your Highnesses, Excellencies, Dr Chipman, distinguished members of the audience, ladies and gentlemen, and my fellow panelists. It is always a privilege to be able to participate in the Manama Dialogue. It is a double privilege to be able to participate in it once again. This is the second time I have attended this Dialogue. I thank you Dr Chipman, and the International Institute of Strategic Studies, for your kind invitation. I would also like to express my grateful thanks and appreciation to our gracious hosts, the Kingdom of Bahrain, and IISS for their very excellent arrangements.
Distinguished members of the audience, I particularly welcome the opportunity to discuss the issue of energy and regional security I would say, at this important forum, and to share with you India’s perspective on the subject. The theme could not have been more timely. Oil prices have attained unprecedented levels, there are international concerns, not just about energy, but also the cascading effects of oil prices on the world’s economy, aspects of climate change, and equally, as we saw this morning, concerns about political stability in sensitive regions across the globe, and the health of the global financial systems. The falling dollar and the rising euro have also thrown many estimates into disarray.
The Indian economy has, no doubt, continued to grow at roughly around 9% these past three years. Our stock markets have reached tremendous heights. Rapid growth, coupled with a rising stock market, is driving greater engagement with the rest of the world. This could, and might well, propel India into becoming one of the world’s 10 largest economies, in a couple of decades. However, all this could be jeopardised if the aspects I mentioned just now were to be further exacerbated.
Ladies and gentlemen, India faces unprecedented demand for energy to fuel its economic growth. We have 17% of the world’s population, but hardly 0.8% of the world’s known oil and natural gas reserves, though we have very substantial coal reserves. Production of natural gas at present is around 87 million standard cubic metres per day. The proven oil reserves amount to less than 6 billion barrels, which is hardly 0.5% of global reserves. Our total proven and possible reserves will approximate to about 11 billion barrels. Consequently, India imports approximately 70% of its oil, much from this region. According to our experts, India’s dependence on oil imports is projected to go up to nearly 90% by the year 2020. India is the world’s second fastest growing energy market, and is soon poised to become the world’s third largest net importer of oil after the US and China.
You therefore agree, members of the distinguished audience, that to ensure energy security for over 1 billion people is a daunting challenge and not an easy one. Our effort has been to ensure a mix of energy sources, including coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear, together with other renewable or so-called alternative sources, such as solar, wind, biofuel, and biomass. Currently, coal is predominantly the domestic energy source, but the quality of our coal reserve is an issue. Growth of the nuclear energy sector has thus become a priority, and I am glad that across this region there has been so much talk today about civil nuclear energy cooperation. We believe, in India, that with international cooperation nuclear power will help us to generate as much as 40,000 megawatts by the year 2030.
I might like to share with you the fact that our energy constraints and our requirements have led to many innovative steps on our part. At one level, it has generated a great deal of momentum in favour of fundamental research and development programmes in the energy sector. At another level it has created pressure to move upstream, and invest in production facilities in energy supplying countries to provide greater security of supply. India has made investments in the Gulf, which is in keeping with the trend of more international investment in this region. In return, and I would like to underline this fact, India seeks GCC investment in Indian infrastructure, especially in the energy field.
At yet another level I would like to take you into confidence, India has endeavoured to use technology to improve efficiencies. It is also attempting to affect alterations in lifestyle practices, even though India remains a very low consumer of energy per capita. In keeping with the theme of the panel discussion, I would like to reinforce our belief that it is external partnerships that India sees as playing a vital role in bridging our energy deficiencies. In this respect the synergy between India and the Gulf should be obvious to everyone. We are amongst the Gulf’s closest neighbours, one which has a modernising economy, and has emerged as a significant trading partner, with a total trade-over of over US$25 billion.
Nearly 5 million Indian citizens live in the Gulf, and they live comfortably and happily, and contribute to their economies. India’s policy of engagement with the Gulf, through offers of economic incentives and strengthened structures for functional cooperation, has had strong resonance in the region. Moreover, the importance of the Gulf in India’s strategic calculus has steadily grown over time.
Everyone here is aware of the fact that ensuring sustainable energy security is now a vital and essential component of a nation’s foreign policy. Energy security requires, apart from things such as emergency stocks and redundancy in critical infrastructure, mutual inter-dependencies among governments, and a proactive physical security framework that includes new strategies as well as new approaches. This is what we are attempting to do. I dare say that the concept of energy security has changed dramatically ever since the great oil disruption of the 1970s. Today there are disputes leading to disruption on account of pricing. We have that problem with one of our friends and neighbours. Technologies are also growing more complex, integrating systems to access energy on demand come with a price. For instance, oil refineries and oil pipelines become inoperable when power lines are damaged during natural disasters. Climate change concerns influence decisions regarding new investments, but above all, no region or energy infrastructure is immune from the risk of terrorism and terrorist related strikes.
Distinguished members, I would like to take this opportunity to state unhesitatingly that for India peace and security in this region is of very vital interest. If I could add, I would also say if there is a possibility that we could do something to add to the sense of security this would be readily forthcoming from us. I dare say that given its current state of economic development, and especially India’s location astride the sea lanes of communication in the region and the Indian ocean as a whole, an area that carries 66% of the world’s oil supplies, 50% of containerised cargo, and 33% of bulk cargo, the stakes for India in the stability and economic wellbeing of this region, is more than evident. We believe that the most effective answer to providing security lies in wide-ranging regional partnerships, which could prove to be a great asset in building cooperative thinking and attitudes. Additionally, and may I be pardoned for saying this here, I think that India’s experience in meeting challenges faced by multi-layered societies could be of great help and considerable utility to nations in the region, who are beginning to face multi-dimensional conflicts ranging from terrorism and aggravated militancy, to inter-state and intra-state conflicts. I think this is a matter that we could discuss at considerable length.
Above all I would like to stress that what drives India today is the shared view of peace and prosperity for the region as a whole. We believe that a common approach to problems, such as extremism, fundamentalism, and terrorism, would go a long way in strengthening security in the region, and I would like to buttress this by mentioning a few points, which may be known to you, but I think are well worth repeating. I believe, since I live in a troubled neighbourhood, that this region, as the south Asian region as well, must remain prepared for a new wave of terrorism; a new wave of terrorism of a more surcharged society. Of all the contemporary threats it is now widely admitted terrorism is the most dangerous. From an occasional footnote, it has now become a hydra headed monster. What is aggravating the nature of the terrorists’ challenge is that asymmetric warfare techniques are becoming more sophisticated, and with terrorism having gone global and international, the locations of terrorism are changing rapidly.
We heard, in a brilliant presentation by the Secretary of Defense, Mr Gates, a reference to Al-Qaeda. Since I have perhaps greater knowledge than most other people in this room of fighting the Al-Qaeda hands on, I said that far more than Al-Qaeda I think it is the Al-Qaeda mindset, which is the mentality that is currently reflected in the vast numbers of terrorist outfits that are prevalent across the globe, that needs to be dealt with. This is resulting an entirely new paradigm of terror, whether it is in the planning, whether it is in the funding, whether it is through arms acquisition or in training methods.
What I say here may be known, but could be startling in some respects. According to our intelligence reports, there are now certain new schools that are now being established on the Pakistan – Afghanistan border, which now specialise in the training of an international brigade of terrorists to fight in many climes. According to our information, recruits from 14 to 15 countries have been identified as amongst the trainees here. Ladies and gentlemen, these are very highly specialised schools, and if this was not an open session in which members of the press and others are present, I would have shared a little more with you, but I am willing to do that separately – the kind of training that has been provided, the kind of methodologies that are being refined. What I can share with you is that the targets include high profile political and other personalities, vital infrastructure and key installations, which include large ocean going liners, oil pipelines, oil dumps, electricity pylons, and the like, apart from the usual military and political targets. Training has become extremely rigorous – it is almost frightening in nature. Studies are being carried out about important targets, with regard to vulnerability, accessibility, poor security, absence of proper counter-terrorism measures, et cetera. The sea route, in particular, is becoming the chosen route for carrying out many attacks, even on land. References to this are to be found replete in current terrorist literature.
Given India’s experience in dealing with terrorism, I would like to therefore sound a note of warning, that there is no scope for complacency. I would say that the Gulf nations, with major oil resources are extremely already highly vulnerable to such threats. What we confront is an itinerant threat from non-state actors, with international connections and linkages. Many share common operating procedures, and common funding mechanisms. The dispersed nature of terrorist fanatical networks, and the diversified nature of terrorist targets, including economic and religious targets, makes terrorism extremely dangerous.
In this context there is a related matter, namely the matter of piracy on the high seas. This is becoming an increasing menace, definitely as far as the Indian ocean region is concerned. The problem here is not ideological, nor is there any other dimension other than the criminal, yet it is our belief that few nations in the area, and even perhaps beyond it, have created or developed an adequate capability to deal with this emerging danger. For instance, with some 90% of the world’s oil supplies passing through the Straits of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb, ensuring the security of these waters is of vital importance, not only to countries in the immediate neighbourhood such as India, but also the countries in the extended neighbourhood such as Japan and perhaps China.
If I might digress, I would like to say that in terms of the overall security of the region unanimity of perception on regional issues affecting this part of the world would have been of great help, unfortunately, as we have seen and as has been made transparently clear even this morning, this is often lacking. There is hardly any need remind this distinguished audience that developments here are often overshadowed by security concerns that are intrinsic and extrinsic to the region. Regional security concerns, I would like to underline, cannot be viewed in a vacuum or in a single dimension. They need to be seen both from the internal and external perspective and, more importantly, in terms of the historical experience of individual societies. It would be in everyone’s interests if solutions could be found for problems that cast a shadow over peace in the region. There are many but I will just mention two here, namely Palestine and Iraq. Both have received considerable blame in the discussions this morning, but I think they are worth being referred to. The stalled Middle East peace process is causing a great deal of concern in the region and even elsewhere. The recent meeting at Annapolis, which was referred to today, and the joint understanding reached at this meeting does provide a roadmap. We welcome this, but we also see it as containing a mixture of both promises, as well as difficulties. Nevertheless, it is our sincere hope that the participation of over 40 countries from the region and beyond it, could provide a supportive environment for the complex negotiations that lie ahead.
It is no secret that India has consistently supported a negotiated solution that would result in a sovereign, independent, viable and united state of Palestine, within secure and recognised boarders, living side-by-side, at peace with Israel. India has always supported the Arab peace initiative. We hope that the process that has just been set in motion at Annapolis will grow to be inclusive, and ensure comprehensive peace and security in the region. The other area of major concern is the situation in war-torn Iraq. The persisting volatile situation here is a matter of concern. We sympathise with Iraq as it grapples, within its pluralistic socio-ethnic fabric, to maintain its national character. In this difficult situation it is vitally important not to become prisoners of self-deception, but instead adapt methods that have been successful in dealing with similar intractable problems of a related nature.
There are two other areas that I would like to briefly touch upon here, which cast some kind of a shadow over the region. One is Iran, about which a lot has been talked about this morning, but India would like to make its point on this issue. India believes that Iran does play a vital role in the Gulf. India has had civilisation linkages with Iran for centuries. In addition to a close contemporary relationship that has always existed there are bonds of mutual understanding. We therefore believe that India’s security perceptions and priorities do need to be addressed through diplomacy and dialogue, and that these must be engaged within the context of its rights and obligations.
I do not think that Afghanistan received the kind of attention that it deserved. In some ways I think Afghanistan has the potential of casting a very large shadow over the region if the problems here are not resolved. The revival of extremist and fundamentalist elements such as the Taliban must not, and should not, be countenanced at any cost. These need to be comprehensively combated. The US, NATO and several other countries are involved in that exercise, and the must stay the course there. Success for the Taliban would result in a long-term setback for countries in the region and beyond it. The forces of democracy, moderation and inclusiveness in Afghanistan need to be supported in the common interest of all nations. India is actively committed in Afghanistan, and has been actively involved in the establishment of a stable political entity here. It is engaged in over 60 developmental projects covering about $750 million in virtually every province of the country, the primary focus being on infrastructure and capacity building. Over 4k Indians are presently working in Afghanistan in humanitarian endeavours, despite the severe security threats that they face on a daily basis.
To conclude, I would to say one thing, that the foundations of India’s relations with the Gulf are not anchored solely in oil. Even energy security, counter-terrorism, the human resource factor, and increasing trade and investment do not constitute the whole story. One must consider the ancient ties of trade, culture and religion between India and the Gulf. It is this that has stood the test of time, and still binds us. There is perhaps even a less in this for the modern world. Two of Islam’s holiest shrines at Mecca and Karbala occupy a special place in the ties between the peoples of this region and India. In the past we have exchanged the wisdom of our scholars in astronomy, science and mathematics. Today, apart from the two way trade between the Gulf and India of approximately $25 million, there is a vital human dimension, with some 5 million Indian nationals living and working peacefully and happily in this region, contributing to the local economies, while remitting a great deal of their savings to India. India has therefore immense interdependencies with this region, which go back in time. India cannot but, therefore, be fully committed to strengthening its commitment to the nations and peoples of this region.
