TALK BY
THE CHAIRMAN JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE
AT 3rd (IISS) GULF DIALOGUE 2006
ON 10 DECEMBER 2006
THE FUTURE SHAPE OF REGIONAL SECURITY
Mr. Chairman, Highnesses, Excellencies,
Honourable fellow delegates
Ladies and Gentlemen:
I consider it a unique honour to address this august group that is highly experienced in dealing with and discussing issues concerning defence, foreign policy and security forming part of 3rd Manama Dialogue. I am extremely grateful to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, especially Dr. John Chipman, for providing me with this opportunity to take part in the debate on the important issues which have been raised. I would also like compliment the Government of Bahrain for the excellent arrangements and traditional warm hospitality.
2. The Gulf region is one of the most important and strategically vital regions in the world. It faces a number of complex challenges which have been brought out in the preceding sessions. It is, therefore, appropriate that in this concluding discussion we should turn our attention to what the future shape of regional security may evolve towards, which would be in the interests of all the Gulf region countries, and the international community at large, who have a common interest in the region’s development, stability and energy resources. My perspective - from Pakistan - a country, which is an extended neighbour of the Gulf, and bound by strong bonds of civilization, history, ethnicity, culture, faith and economic-ties with all the countries in the Gulf. And I may add that these linkages have grown over time into a robust, multi-faceted fraternal partnership extending from the participation of the largest part of the expariate Pakistani community anywhere to close security and defence cooperation, reflective of mutual trust and confidence. Indeed our security, stability and prosperity has always been directly linked with this immediate neighbourhood and we have the vision of Pakistan acting as a bridge between the Gulf, South Asian and Central Asia.
3. There are basically two aspects, when we attempt to analyze the present situation with a view to consider the avenues of further development. The first pertains to the strategic interests and role of the extra-regional powers and the existing convergences and divergences, between these powers and the regional States. The second and equally critical aspect pertains to the harmonization of interests amongst all the Gulf States, what they can do in this regard, and the supporting environment which the outside powers, and all other relevant parties should work towards.
4. Although the Gulf region has been at the geo-political cross-roads through history, the critical issues of stability and security in this region came to the fore in the post colonial and post-cold war periods, the festering Palestine issue notwithstanding. The transition of the regional societies, the departure of the colonial powers, the dismantling of the cold war security structures and above all the increasing demand for the energy resources have intensified these issues. A series of events, beginning with the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, military intervention in Iraq and controversy about Iran’s nuclear programme, have raised serious security concerns at the Gulf, regional and international levels.
5. The current significant issues with major security concern for the region and beyond relate to;
(a) The paradox that while the induction of a foreign military presence may have certain immediate stabilizing effects, at the same time it gives rise to destabilizing effects, internally in the member states and at the regional level.
(b) The prevalent instability in Iraq with its ethnic and sectarian components a source of concern not only to the Gulf societies but to the wider Muslim world. This comes at the same time when unfortunately a similar situation has arisen in Afghanistan.
(c) The unresolved issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, leading to uncertainty about what this may portend for the region.
(d) Terrorism, which poses another threat to stability at state and regional level. The effects of resentment over the unresolved Palestine problem, compounded by recent events in Gaza and Lebanon, and US support for Israel, have been exploited by terrorist organizations.
(e) Energy security in terms of uninterrupted accessibility, safe transportation and maritime security, at a time when the Gulf region is supplying 26% of the world’s oil, which is expected to rise to 32% by 2025.
6. Economic growth of various regions and a number of countries including ASEAN, EU, USA, China, Japan and South Asia, has increased the demand for energy. Thus the growing energy needs of these regions and countries has resulted in a shifting landscape in the Gulf with greater competitive interplay of global and regional powers.
7. Much will depend on whether or not the outside powers are able to evolve a suitable mechanism to share available energy resources rather than competing for dominance, and for encouraging the evolution of an understanding on collective regional security and economic development, amongst the Gulf countries.
8. Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen – Terrorism knows no borders and has no religion. As we experienced the blow-back effects of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and a consequent emergence of an international extremist and terrorist networks, we are also concerned about the linkages between the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. I would like to reemphasize the observations of the earlier speakers on adopting a broader approach over the impact and reactions on a regional basis. Consequently efforts at stabilizing Iraq must simultaneously be focused on achieving peace and security in Afghanistan.
9. Pakistan remains a key player on the international war on terrorism. The successes we have achieved are unparallel. We have also paid a heavy price for our policies on counter-terrorism but we remain undeterred. However, it is important to understand that in countering terrorism and extremism, military action alone will not be enough. It must be overarchingly a political approach with focus on socio-economic development. Most important it is crucial to address the root causes of terrorism, arising from foreign occupation i.e., deprivation, injustice and denial of freedom in the form of long standing disputes like Palestine, Kashmir, etc, which cause frustration, anger and desperation.
10. Regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, the position of Pakistan has always been very clear. We believe that Iran’s rights to peaceful nuclear energy should be respected. Iran must fulfill its international obligations. All efforts should be made for an amicable resolution of this issue between Iran and the E3+3, with which the entire Gulf region would feel comfortable. Forcible measures or sanctions would be a recipe for disaster, particularly in a region already beset with crisis. We note that all the countries of the Gulf, including Iran, support a nuclear free zone in their region.
11. We understand from statements made by the US, the EU and Iran, that in addition to the need to resolve the nuclear issue, they all would like to work towards a situation in which Iran feels itself secure. The linkages between these two issues, the conditionalities or absence thereof, and the sequencing, is at the heart of the matter of how to proceed. We believe that no effort should be spared to achieve progress. Stability in the Gulf region, also necessitates that the resolution of this issue is such that not only the security of Iran is addressed, but also the security of its Gulf neighbours. We also note that the IRAQ STUDY GROUP report inter alia recommends discussions with Iran on helping to stabilize Iraq. In fact all the Gulf countries, who also have a vital stake in Iraq’s stable and unified future should be brought into this process.
12. Thus I come to the area of my second focus. While the outside powers and the international community in general should, in their long term interest, encourage and support a collective regional consensus on security and development, it is equally urgent that the Gulf countries seriously embark upon such a process on their own.
13. There is also a need for change of approach and emphasis. For the present, our conferences and debates, including those in the media, focus on the challenges and divergences which are divisive and negate possibilities of accommodation, compromise and consensus. There is an obvious tendency to concentrate on the threat perceptions, risks and potential crises. Without negating the need for realism and objectivity, let me suggest the importance of balance in our evaluations and projections. There is a need to equally focus on the convergences and opportunities that are available for stability and peace.
14. The Muslim world is united under the over arching umbrella of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). Even if the OIC does not yet have a high-profile role in international affairs, commensurating with its potential, it has a unified position uniting all its 57 Member States on Palestine and other unresolved disputes such as Kashmir, and others, and for solidarity vis-à-vis the challenges and threats faced or experienced by the Muslim Ummah.
15. Moreover amongst the peoples of the Muslim countries, there is this collective sentiment for supporting Muslim causes and the need for unity and collective security, even if it is inchoate at this moment in terms of implementation. The Israeli aggression against Lebanon made it clear that Muslims everywhere, irrespective of their ethnicity or sect were united in condemning the war and asking for support for Lebanon.
16. In terms of existing convergences between the Gulf countries, and by extension the international community beyond, let me mention OPEC. All the Gulf countries are its members. As their economic and social development, relies to a large extent on their hydrocarbon resource development and export, all these countries have not only a common vital stake in the stability of the region but also in the secure passage of these resources to their export partners.
17. I would suggest that all the Gulf countries should as a first step consult together to better understand each others security concerns and how they could be collectively addressed and met. Similarly it would help clarify misperceptions regarding the presence or influence of extra-regional powers. Again I would reiterate that all outside powers should be supportive of such a process as it evolves. The MANAMA DAILOGUE is an important step in this direction. There are already many similar activities being held in the various Gulf countries. The need is to extend the spirit of MANAMA DIALOGUE to all of them.
18. From this process of inclusive consultation, the future shape of regional security can then emerge. This may be a collective regional understanding, before developing into a structure. In fact we have at the moment such arrangements in the GCC, which can be broadened to make it more inclusive and strengthened to address the regional disputes.
19. In the changed geo-strategic environment, there is also a need for the US and other outside powers to adopt a more realistic approach to the security of the Gulf. The ability of the greatest powers to decisively sustain intervention abroad is now limited, and therefore apprehensions of potential regional hegemons should also be now reduced. I am confident that the Gulf countries have the ability to evolve an inclusive regional security system which encompasses their political, developmental and strategic concerns, and for which in different fields, they will find willing partners from outside the region, whom they can trust.
20. Pakistan enjoys close and friendly relations with all the Gulf countries and is seen as a sincere, time-tested friend by the leaders and equally important, the people of all the Gulf countries without exception. Pakistan therefore possesses a uniquely advantageous position to play a pivotal role in supporting and facilitating the Gulf region to build up its own integrated security, development and stability architecture, in accordance with the wishes of all the Gulf States. This would be in-line with the traditional ties we have developed with the Gulf countries in all fields.
21. In conclusion, permit me to say that as the Gulf region’s geo-strategic importance increases, the greater becomes the need for all the Gulf countries to work collectively towards the regions stabilization and economic progress. Also that the partners of the Gulf countries should assist in this evolution. Closer cooperative and political ties between the GCC, Iran and Iraq, in which a start has been made, has the potential of transforming the entire region.
22. At the same time a supportive environment is critically needed. Efforts should be intensified, particularly by the US, EU, Russia, and within the UN, to resolve the Middle East problem as it impacts not only on the Gulf region, but the wider Muslim world and on the future of the global anti-terrorism campaign. The Iranian nuclear issue must be peacefully resolved. All support should be given to stabilize Iraq and to preserve its unity.
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