The Gulf states and Iran
Posted Friday 3 December, 12:28 Bahrain time
By Emile Hokayem,Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East
At a gathering such as the Manama Dialogue, a key question is the position of the Gulf states regarding the key regional security issue, that of Iran’s nuclear programme. In the midst of diplomatic activity surrounding this, their voice remains subdued. Arab leaders spend much time either complaining that their Western allies do not consult enough with them, or worrying that their interests may be compromised should the United States and Iran reach an arrangement.
Absent a public articulation of their interests and of their vision for regional security, the protestations of Gulf states are unlikely to have much effect. To be sure, Arab leaders insist that their vision is clear: a nuclear-free Middle East and an end to Iran’s interference in Arab affairs. However, this hardly amounts to a diplomatic posture.
Arab Gulf states have been reluctant to join the Western strategy. In this great-power game, they hold too few cards to sway Iran. Only the United States can offer the security guarantees that Iran demands, and only the European Union and the US can provide the economic incentives. Gulf states also calculate that the Western strategy is unlikely to persuade Iran to stop its nuclear quest, in which case there is little benefit in joining a failing policy.
The broader question for the Arab Gulf states is whether their longer-term vision for regional security is compatible with Iran’s. At the moment, it is not. The Gulf states are pushing ahead with a strategy of diversifying their strategic relationships with foreign actors and using their wealth and economic growth to give a stake in their security to as many nations as possible. To the contrary, Iran seeks to prevent more nations having a say in Gulf security.
If the Gulf states want their vision to prevail, they need to start thinking more creatively about their role in the discussion over regional security. Their limits are known: they don’t want to sit at the negotiation table with Iran and they cannot offer credible security assurances to Iran. Still, the Arab side needs to devote more thought to what a normal relationship with Iran could look like and how it may operate. Because the US has acted as the grand architect of Gulf security for so long, there is little understanding and interaction between the two shores of the Gulf. Only by being proactive and constructive can the Gulf states shape their own strategic environment.
The goal should be to define the broad contours of Iran’s regional integration while reassuring Tehran that its vital interests will be addressed. A good model is the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which embeds the principles of sovereignty and non-interference.
