Manama Voices

The coming of age of the Manama Dialogue

Farewell from Manama Voices

The Manama Dialogue 2010 has ended. Closing the conference, Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, said this seventh Dialogue was the biggest yet. It had shown the value of the event in cutting across bureaucratic divides and providing an informal forum for the future of regional security to be discussed and new policy prescriptions advanced. The IISS, in its research work, would be taking up the themes of the Dialogue – for example in cybersecurity.

Dr Chipman thanked the Kingdom of  Bahrain for its enormous hospitality and support for the Manama Dialogue. Planning for the 8th Manama Dialogue 2011 now begins and the dates will be announced soon.

Transcripts of all the Dialogue plenary sessions, as well as photographs and blog posts, can be found on IISS Website. This blog will resume next year, and meanwhile follow posts on the Institute’s regular blog, IISS Voices.

What the press says - redux

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came to Bahrain to deliver a Special Address, and addressed a part of it especially to the Iranian delegation led by foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki; she said she hoped for constructive engagement in the coming week's talks on Tehran's nuclear programme. King Abdullah of Jordan warned in his Keynote Address that the window was closing for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians. WikiLeaks was never far from someone's lips. These, above, are the words most frequently used by the press to describe the Manama Dialogue 2010.

Word cloud created using Wordle

Al-Arabiya TV debate

When the Al-Arabiya debate is shown on the network’s Arabic news channel in a week or so, look out for a lively discussion. Top of the agenda in the panel discussion, held at the IISS Manama Dialogue, were the problems of Yemen, the need to combat al-Qaeda and the recent Wikileaks disclosures of American diplomatic traffic. Prince Turki al Faisal bin Abdulaziz al Saud, chairman of the board of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, called strongly for a centre to coordinate international action against al-Qaeda. Asked why there had not been sufficient coordination, he said he didn’t know. But the centre was an absolute necessity. Liam Fox, UK Secretary of State for defence, agreed that governments needed to work together, but said it was very difficult to do. In a globalised world, problems of security and economic wellbeing were inextricably linked. Dr Abu Bakr al Qirbi, Yemen’s foreign minister, said Yemen wanted to shed its perceived status as a ‘failed state’ and that people who spoke of it as such should visit the country and understand it before doing so.

Edit: Perspectives from the Manama Dialogue' will air on Al Arabiya this Thursday at 08:05pm GMT.

Young Strategists at the 2010 Manama Dialogue

An ASEAN for the Gulf? 

Posted Sunday 5 December, 18:20 Bahrain Time

By Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director IISS-US, Corresponding Director IISS-Middle East 

The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit closed with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt and HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal bin Abdulaziz speaking on “The Changing Nature of Regional Security.”  Bildt said that the need for a regional security structure in the Gulf, modeled on ASEAN, is both possible and necessary.  He described the blending of globalization and regional security in the Gulf.   Prince Turki proposed that the Middle East be free of nuclear weapons – a recurring theme among  some of the Dialogue speakers.  The discussion highlighted security challenges that are both international and regional, as well as both new and old – the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, questions about Iran’s nuclear weapons, and cyber security, among other issues. 

The piracy problem: limited solutions

By Christian Le Miere, Research Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security

Piracy and maritime security have been a constant theme throughout the Manama Dialogue. Every plenary session has mentioned the issue, while the presence of various naval delegations and the ongoing international deployments in the western Indian Ocean means that, beyond Iran, it has proved a hot topic of the conference.

Much has been made of the opportunity the naval deployments offer for military collaboration. However, notably lacking is any change in thinking on the topic or any new ideas of how to solve the problem. There is a well-worn recognition that the problem ultimately lies on land, but given that that land is Somalia, no-one is eager to secure the notoriously unstable country.

The focus on piracy also means little attention has been paid to maritime terrorism. Given that the US Department of Transport confirmed two weeks ago that damage to the Japanese tanker, the M Star, near the Strait of Hormuz in July was the result of a suicide attack, this omission might seem surprising. Yet, given that attempted pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia have reached a record level this year, it seems the regional and international navies have enough to deal with in the short term.

Gulf states consider air defence capabilities

By Douglas Barrie, Senior fellow for Military Aerospace

That there is a delivery mechanism is indisputable, and there remains a strong suspicion – despite Tehran’s denials – that a nuclear weapons capability to complement its ballistic missile programme remains the aim of the regime.

Concern over the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear aspirations continues to propel regional interest in bolstering air defence capabilities in general and ballistic missile defence in particular. The challenges related to providing effective missile defence coverage, however, are substantial, operationally and politically.

Only days before the Permanent Five members of the U.N Security Council and Germany were to meet with Iranian officials in Switzerland to yet again try to resolve outstanding questions regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, sharp rhetoric was being employed at the Manama Dialogue to caution the regime as to the urgency of the need for diplomatic progress.

Liam Fox, UK defence secretary, warned: ‘An Iranian nuclear weapons capability will not be tolerated by the international community. It could destroy hopes for peace in the Middle East, for international stability and could very well end the Non-Proliferation Treaty as we know it...  We want a negotiated solution not a military one, but Iran needs to work with us to achieve that outcome because we will not look away or back down.’

Were Israel, with or without the US, to take military action against Iranian nuclear installations, one option for Tehran would be to retaliate using conventionally-armed ballistic missiles against US forces in the region, and against states which provide basing facilities to Washington.

While the US Patriot anti-missile system has been acquired by countries in the Gulf region, with the more capable THAAD missile defence system also on order, there is as of yet no integrated regional air defence capability, with gaps likely existing both in radar and missile interceptor coverage. Political sensitivities could mean that Gulf states share air defence radar data only on a bilateral basis with the US. This will complicate the creation of a coherent air picture. Structuring a multi-national command chain – or developing the required authority – to provide timely decision making might also  be an area requiring attention. Cruise missiles would be a further complicating factor, should an Iranian land-attack capability emerge in this area.

• • Small nations have to be creative

By Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security

Small nations have to be creative in how they pursue security, and have to do it in ways that protect and advance their economic development. Their options range from strengthening their defences to fostering regional alliances to building international alliances. This was the trust of a panel bringing together Teo Chee Hean, the Deputy Prime Minister and minister of defence of Singapore, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE foreign minister, and Liam Fox, UK secretary of state for defence.

Teo described the inception and evolution of ASEAN, the Southeast Asia regional security organization. By enshrining the principles of national sovereignty and non-interference without over-formalizing their security cooperation, ASEAN has allowed its members to focus on their national development. For the distrustful states of the Persian Gulf, this has unmistakable appeal as a model for an inclusive security framework in the Middle East.

Sh Abdullah adopted the same line. Using Qatar’s successful World Cup bid, he pleaded for a broad definition of security that recognizes the global standing, demographic growth and economic success of the Gulf states.

Fox reiterated his country’s commitment to the security of its allies, noting that the UK was looking to raise its standing in the Gulf given the friendship and shared interests. He detailed his country’s intense security and defence involvement in the region.

Power shifts and regional security

By Dr Bastian Giegerich, Consulting Senior Fellow for European Security

The geo-economic and geo-strategic centre of gravity is shifting eastwards towards Asia, ushering in an era of economic and political multipolarity, according to Sh Muhammad Al Sabah Al Sabah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kuwait. Discussions at the Manama Dialogue confirmed the impression that global power shifts are outpacing multilateral capacity to address the resulting challenges, namely greater complexity and deeper uncertainty regarding security problems. Sh Muhammad argued that four global changes were driving the emerging international framework: first, the rise of new middle powers with global interests. Second, threat perceptions now encompass environmental dangers, disease and terrorism, and are far more diffuse than in the days of nuclear stand-off.  Third, governments can no longer control the international agenda and will have to accommodate new movers and shakers, such as non-governmental  organizations and social networks. Fourth, global demographic dynamics are likely to make a mockery of efforts to create an equilibrium between resources and populations, possibly setting up a collision between the declining ‘North’ and the rising ‘South’.

One of the consequences pointed out by Australia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kevin Rudd, is an urgent need to strengthen the links between existing regional security establishments, including in Asia-Pacific and the Gulf. Both regions have somewhat rudimentary multilateral security institutions making confidence building with in the regions and between them a core task and one to which the Manama Dialogue contributes, Rudd said.

Rudd proposes new institutional structures - again 

By Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director for IISS-Asia

As Prime Minister before he was deposed in a brutal palace coup earlier this year, Kevin Rudd put much time and energy into promoting his idea for an all-singing, all-dancing Asia Pacific Community (APC) that would provide a venue for leaders of regional states (or at least the important ones like China and Australia) to discuss and perhaps even manage big-picture challenges in the security and economic spheres. The idea apparently stalled in the face of resistance from Southeast Asian governments which feared their interests would be trampled underfoot in the sort of new regional institution that Rudd envisaged.

While Rudd didn't mention the APC in his speech today at the Manama Dialogue, he did talk about the need for 'new institutional structures' to deal with Indian Ocean security. It would be interesting to know in more detail what he has in mind, and whether this suggestion indicates any rethinking on his part of the nature of the regional community that is needed - in other words, is his thinking now that the putative community should stretch from the Gulf to Northeast Asia? Or does he envisage a more restricted Indian Ocean body?

CentCom's Gen Mattis: attack on Iran would be disaster

Posted Saturday 4 December, 17:10 Bahrain time

By Dr Tim Huxley, Director for Defence and Military Analysis

General James Mattis, the US Centcom commander, shone through in this session as a sensible strategic thinker ready in a low-key manner to speak his mind. While there was nothing exceptional in his presentation, his responses to questions were anything but bland. While he stressed that a nuclear-armed Iran would be unacceptable not only to the United States but also to the United Nations and the region, he was also clear that an attack on Iran 'would be an absolute disaster'. There were already, he indicated, grave concerns about the 'grim' ramifications of such an attack.

In Mattis' view, there has got to be a solution short of conflict. This reinforced Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's effort in her Special Address on Friday evening to reach out to Iran's leaders on the nuclear issue. Mattis also made clear his recognition that the Israel-Palestine issue 'underlies everything' he's concerned with in the region. Stressing that President Obama remains fully committed to advancing the peace process, Mattis spoke of  the 'security penalty' inherent in failure. And for that reason, he said in answer to a question, America not only views European involvement positively - Washington needs European support on this question.

Iran: diverging views ahead of Geneva talks

Posted Saturday, 4 December, 14:45

By Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East 

A day ahead of the Geneva meeting between the P5+1 grouping and Iran, serious differences over visions for regional security emerged from speeches by the foreign ministers of Iran, Bahrain and Turkey.

A defiant Manouchehr Mottaki insisted that the presence of foreign powers in the Persian Gulf was the immediate cause for regional divisions and strife, citing Afghanistan and Iraq. In line with previous Iranian statements, he called for the indigenization of regional security, claiming that Iran and its neighbours could themselves work out a regional order. (He did not mention the recent Wikileaks revelations, which showed that Washington had resisted Arab demands that the US bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.)

A conciliatory Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed al Khalifa sought to portray Bahrain as a responsible actor in the international arena, keen to maintain and nurture international partnerships to protect its development and stability. In parallel with massive arms procurement in recent times and closer defence cooperation with the US, the Gulf states are leveraging their economic clout and energy wealth to give a stake to many countries in their own security.

A confident Ahmet Davutoglu elaborated on a vision for collective security based on economic integration and mutual respect. Turkey has made undeniable inroads in the Middle East by adopting, at least nominally, a ‘zero-problem’ approach. But there are constraints on Turkey’s strategy, ranging from Western scepticism over its relations with Iran to Arab unease with the emergence of a new actor in regional matters.

Naturally, a dominant theme of the discussion was the upcoming Geneva talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, especially in the light of Hillary Clinton’s conciliatory remarks at the Manama Dialogue on Saturday (see Andrew Parasiliti’s post) and in a BBC interview in which she said that Iran would have the right to enrich once it gets a clean bill of health from the UN nuclear watchdog and the Security Council.

Sh Khalid suggested the creation of a multilateral nuclear fuel bank as a solution to the concerns over Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. The idea received a conditional nod from Mottaki who argued that Iran already possessed nuclear technology and should therefore host a branch of the bank. Davutoglu liked the idea but cautioned that it needs to be fleshed out.

Ideas to allow Iran some enrichment under tough safeguards and international supervision have been floated for a number of years. The ‘zero-enrichment’ demand is now giving way to the realistic admission that Iran has now mastered the technology, so creative proposals are needed.

But it is unclear why there should be more confidence that the Geneva talks can be successful this year when a previous proposal put forward last year by the Vienna group failed in the phase of Iranian political dysfunction: of all the Wikileaks disclosures, one of the most interesting is a memorandum of conversation with Michael Postl, a former Austrian ambassador to Tehran, who describes the political infighting that followed Iran’s initial approval of the deal. Iran’s political system is no less dysfunctional this year, and an America whose overtures have been turned down may become more rigid.

High stakes in Mid-East talks

Posted Saturday, 4 December, 14:38

By Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS

King Abdullah of Jordan, in the opening speech of the Manama Dialogue 2010, identified the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the key to gaining peace across the wider Middle East. ‘Our region will not enjoy security and stability unless we solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and Arabs, Muslims and Israelis find peace,’ he stated.

The King reiterated that the Arab Peace initiative, launched by the Arab League over eight years ago in 2002, remained the best vehicle for a comprehensive and sustainable peace. ‘The Arab Peace Initiative offers more than just an end of conflict.  It offers a lasting peace that will allow Israel to have normal relations with 57 Arab and Muslim countries, and will free our region from the threat of war and conflict.’

However, King Abdullah added a sense of urgency in moving the parties towards a settlement. ‘Geographic and demographic changes are threatening the essence of the initiative’.

The King added: ‘As a solution continues to elude us, faith in negotiations, as the only path to peace and justice, is eroding. And if hope is killed, radical forces will prevail.  The region will sink into more vicious warfare and instability, threatening security far beyond the borders of the Middle East’.  

In the questions following his speech, King Abdullah addressed Israel’s vision of its own future.  The Israelis he spoke to could not imagine what type of country they would inhabit in in ten years time, he said. The King stressed that they faced a profound choice, living in ‘Fortress Israel’ or making peace with the Palestinians. The major choice for Israelis over the next decade was described by the King as either a ‘democratic Israel’ at peace with its neighbours or an ‘apartheid Israel’. 

King Abdullah: 'This opportunity cannot last forever'

Other Manama Voices

Clinton's direct message to Iran

Posted Saturday 05 December, 01:30 Bahrain time

By Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director IISS-US, Corresponding Director IISS-Middle East 

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke on regional security in the Persian Gulf at the Opening Dinner of the IISS Manama Dialogue.  The speech was notable not only for the content, but for who was at the head table.  

At a dinner with nearly 400  conference delegates hosted by HRH Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa of the Kingdom of Bahrain, others at the head table of approximately three dozen VIPs, included His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan, and, interestingly, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki of Iran.

At one point in her speech, Clinton said: 'I'd like to directly address the delegation at this conference from the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.'  The secretary said she was 'pleased to have this opportunity for your government and mine to gather here with representatives from other nations to discuss problems of mutual interest and concern.'  She said that she hoped that Iran would come to the P5+1 talks in Geneva next week 'as we will, in good faith and prepared to engage constructively on your nuclear program.'  She said that the US is 'still committed' to President Obama's offer of engagement with Iran.  She added that Iran has 'the right to a peaceful nuclear program.'  And she urged Iran to make the choice to 'restore the confidence of the international community and live up to your obligations' as a peaceful nuclear power.   She noted worrying concerns in the recent IAEA report. Clinton added that 'the world in turn would benefit from the full participation of the Iranian nation in the political, social, and economic life of this region.'

Clinton's remarks were heavy on engagement and light on pressure.  That Mottaki decided to attend the dinner and speech is perhaps a diplomatic gesture as well, in advance of both his speech at the Dialogue on Saturday, and the P5+1 talks in Geneva.

Another notable guest at the head table was the recently elected Speaker of Iraq's Council of Representatives, Osama Al-Nujaifi.

'I'd like to directly address the delegation at this conference from the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran'

'The era of Political assassination with impunity in Lebanon must end'

From Kazakhstan to Bahrain

Diplomacy and Development feature in Bloomberg roundtable

By Alexander Nicoll, Director of Editorial 

A preview of the hot issues at the Manama Dialogue was provided by a Bloomberg roundtable hosted by Lara Setrakian, who asked a five-man panel about the impact on Gulf diplomacy of the Wikileaks disclosures. Andrew Shapiro, US Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs, said they were unfortunate but that underlying relationships were strong. What the leaked cables showed, he said, was diplomats doing their job. Policies would not change. Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Regional Security, said personalities were revealed but agreed that the fundamentals would not be affected.

With new talks due next week on Iran’s nuclear programme, this issue is at the top of the minds of most people assembling for the Manama Dialogue. Sh Sultan al Qassemi, Fellow, Dubai School of Government, said there was scope for more active diplomacy from Gulf states, and Bahrain’s finance minister, Sh Ahmed bin Mohammed al Khalifa, noted that events like the Manama Dialogue helped to promote this. There was also a strong feeling in the roundtable, however, that regional security went hand in hand economic development. Sh Mohammed bin Essa al Khalifa, Chief Executive of the Bahrain Economic Development Board, noted that the region had been through three wars, and that there was a need to insulate them from the effects of security threats. The region now offered a tremendous economic opportunity. 

Countdown to Manama

A large press entourage followed, and will join, Clinton in Bahrain. The BBC's Kim Ghattas  and Reuters Andrew Quinn are in town, while ABC News' Lara Setrakian will also participate. Josh Rogin, from Foreign Policy magazine's The Cable is also en route, and has already filed his first dispatch during a stop-over in Doha.

The Cable will providing full coverage of the Dialogue, and we'll have more updates as the day progresses. 

The Gulf states and Iran

By Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East  

At a gathering such as the Manama Dialogue, a key question is the position of the Gulf states regarding the key regional security issue, that of Iran’s nuclear programme. In the midst of diplomatic activity surrounding this, their voice remains subdued. Arab leaders spend much time either complaining that their Western allies do not consult enough with them, or worrying that their interests may be compromised should the United States and Iran reach an arrangement.

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From state-centric to transnational challenges - Emile Hokayem introduces the Manama Dialogue

Emile Hokayem discusses the regional security context in the Gulf and the value of the Manama Dialogue as a forum for inter-state cooperation.

Coming up this weekend on Manama Voices

Posted Thursday 2 December, 19:05 Bahrain time

From Thursday evening there will be an increase in the number and frequency of posts as the 7th IISS Manama Dialogue gets underway. Manama Voices is your opportunity to get news of the Dialogue and views from the conference floor with analysis from senior IISS staff as well as photographs, video content and the IISS Twitter feed. Tonight Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS-Middle East, gives an overview of the current issues affecting the Gulf region and looks forward to some of the topics discussed at the Dialogue this year. We hope you will bookmark this page and come back for the latest comment and analysis as the weekend unfolds.

Safeguarding security in the Middle East

On CNBC's Capital Connection this morning, IISS Director-General Dr John Chipman discussed what will be on the agenda at the Manama Dialogue with CNBC's Yousef Gamal El-Din and Maithreyi Seetharaman.

Balancing Acts: Previewing the new issue of Survival

Posted Wednesday 1 December, 21:05 Bahrain time

In the December-January issue of our journal Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, James Farwell examines how al-Qaeda is beating the West in its exploitation of new media technologies and political communication techniques to promote its own narratives and drive its themes and messages in Jihadi Video in the ‘War of Ideas’.

Two articles explore the Iranian nuclear issue.  A nuclear-armed Iran would have profound, lasting and far-reaching consequences for key Alliance roles and missions, says Bruno Tertrais in A Nuclear Iran and NATO.

The crisis linking Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington is not the only problem facing the president but Iran’s defiance and Israel’s panic are the fuses for a war that could destroy all his other ambitions. In Obama’s Dilemma: Iran, Israel and the Rumours of War Dana Allin and Steven Simon present a summary of their new book launched recently at the IISS in London

Turning to wider global issues: in Out of Balance: The Fragile World Economy IISS experts Stephen Fidler and Alexander Nicoll contend that the pattern of globalisation that developed after the end of the Cold War has become unsustainable, but it is not clear what new economic order will replace it. Meanwhile, in  How Do Rising Powers Rise?, Andrew Hart and Bruce Jones argue that, in the short term, bargaining and balancing look set to outweigh building or blocking as emerging-power strategies.

IISS Members can access the new issue here

Buy the December Issue of Survival  

The challenges facing Yemen

Posted Wednesday 1 December, 17:28 Bahrain time

By Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS-Middle East

For a long time, Yemen, which sits at the geographical periphery of the Arabian Peninsula, was considered a political outlier by its Arab Gulf neighbours.  Its main features - the size of the population, its scarce energy wealth, its political system, its strategic orientation and the fabric of Yemeni society - differ strongly from the characteristics of the smaller and younger Gulf states. That divide and the mere distance between the booming Arab shore of the Persian Gulf and the increasingly destitute Yemen have generated regional neglect in Yemen’s more dire moments.

Left alone to face its challenges, from environmental degradation to the expulsion of Yemeni workers from other Gulf states after Yemen supported Saddam Hussein during the 1990-91 Gulf War, Yemen has more than underperformed in the past two decades. It now faces the Houthi rebellion in the North and a resurgence of secessionist sentiments in the South and, after years of complacency, an intensification of Al-Qaeda activities in the country. The international community only took notice of this deteriorating situation when Yemen became a launching pad for terrorist attacks in the West.

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One more run at engagement with Iran in Geneva

Posted Tuesday 30 November, 22:24 Bahrain time

In the 1 December edition of The National, Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director IISS-US, Corresponding Director IISS-Middle East writes:

As diplomatic revelations unfold about the content of the Wikileaks documents, leaders in the Middle East seem to be understandably preoccupied with Iran. Some cables have even expressed a willingness to consider the use of force by the US to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Publicly, the Obama administration has said that all options are on the table in dealing with Tehran. But Washington has so far given priority to sanctions and, it seems, at least, one more run at engagement.

After more than a year, the US, along with the UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany, the P5+1, are preparing for another round of talks with Iran next week in Geneva. American and Iranian delegations will also participate in the 7th annual Regional Security Summit, or "Manama Dialogue," organised by London's International Institute for Strategic Studies this weekend in Bahrain.

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What the press says

Posted Tuesday 30 November, 20:05 Bahrain time

We’ve turned the press coverage from last year’s Manama Dialogue into a word cloud, to see what dominated the agenda. What will be the hot topic this year? After 2010’s Dialogue closes, we’ll repeat the exercise, and post the result here on Manama Voices. 

Word cloud created using Wordle

'A regional institution'

Posted Tuesday 30 November, 14:51 GMT

Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies, describes how the Manama Dialogue may resemble a conference but is in fact better thought of as a ‘de facto regional security institution’ with all of the advantages of formal inter-governmental meetings but none of the drawbacks.  At the Manama Dialogue a ‘more flexible, pragmatic and businesslike approach’ prevails and the ritualistic feel of other inter-governmental institutional meetings is avoided.

Dialogue Keynote Address to be delivered by King Abdullah of Jordan

Posted Tuesday 30 November, 11:05 Bahrain time
 

The Keynote Address of the 2010 Manama Dialogue will be given by HM King Abdullah II of Jordan on Saturday 4 December.

'The IISS is honoured that His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan will give the Keynote Address at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Saturday, 4 December.' Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS-US, Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East said. 'The Manama Dialogue is the premier forum for discussions of regional security, and will be attended this year by ministers and senior officials from some 25 countries. King Abdullah’s keynote address will attract great interest throughout the Middle East and around the world, and will help set the tone for the candid and frank discussions that are the trademark of the Manama Dialogue.'

Manama Voices Exclusive
Now in Arabic: IISS Analysis on China and Lebanon

Posted Monday 29 November, 19:30 Bahrain time

When we opened the IISS-Middle East Office in Bahrain, Dr John Chipman, the Institute’s Director-General said: “The IISS will translate the best of its work into Arabic  and distribute it to government, business leaders, the media and academics in the region.”

Today we are pleased to preview, here on Manama Voices, two recent articles from Strategic Comments, the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politico-military issues, in Arabic.

Clinton to address Manama Dialogue

The IISS is now in a position to confirm that United States’ Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will deliver a Special Address to the 2010 Manama Dialogue.

IISS Director-General Dr John Chipman commented this morning: 'US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s decision to address the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on 3 December, to be attended by ministers and senior officials from some 25 countries, confirms the Manama Dialogue as an essential pillar of the diplomatic and security architecture of the region. The GCC states and their immediate neighbours, meeting with Asians,  Europeans and North Americans have a special opportunity in Manama to consult on the pressing security issues of the day. Hillary Clinton’s opening remarks will attract huge attention and will help to encourage the frank dialogue that the Manama Dialogue is there to promote.'

Stuxnet no silver bullet in Iran nuclear talks

By Dina Esfandiary, Research assistant, IISS Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme

Last week, Tehran said it had defeated the Stuxnet computer worm found in some of its nuclear facilities. 'Fortunately the nuclear Stuxnet virus has faced a dead end,' declared Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's nuclear agency. Delegates to this year's Manama Dialogue may hear more if the Iranian delegation in Bahrain (hopefully to be again led by foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki) is as outspoken as last year's.

Salehi's comment came on the same day that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report hinting that Iran had suspended uranium enrichment for just over a week in mid-November (see footnotes 3 & 4). Whatever else this stoppage means, its temporary nature disproves the notion that Stuxnet is an effective 'cyber-missile' destined to bring Iran's uranium-enrichment activities to an end.

How has the GFC changed the Gulf?

Piracy trials and tribulations

Posted Wednesday, 24 November, 16:32

By Christian Le Mière, Research Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security 

Quite a bit of coverage has been given this week to the first German trial of pirates in 400 years. But across the Atlantic, another court case is wrapping up that even more emphatically underlines the problems of prosecuting pirates in the modern age. The trial of five ­Somalis on charges of attacking the USS Nicholas – the first US piracy case since the Civil War – went ahead in Norfolk, Virginia, because Kenya refused to accept the suspects. Now a new Kenyan legal decision means that more Western countries could be forced to shoulder the burden of legally trying those who have been hijacking ships off the east coast of Africa.

Maritime security is of perennial interest in the Gulf, and a special session at the Manama Dialogue on Sunday morning is devoted to it. Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast had become such a scourge by early 2009 that the United States Navy's Fifth Fleet in Manama announced the formation of a new combined taskforce (CTF–151) specifically to tackle it. Between 15 and 20 nations are now deployed at any one time either independently or in one of three multinational operations to protect shipping.

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Eyes on Iran

Posted Tuesday, 23 November 2010, 18:27

By Ben Rhode, Research Associate for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament 

The IISS Manama Dialogue will take place on the same weekend that negotiations between world powers and Iran over Tehran's controversial nuclear programme are expected to resume after more than a year. The talks, which fell apart in late 2009 with Iran's rejection of a proposed nuclear-fuel swap, are due to kick off again in Geneva on 5 December, just after the Dialogue comes to a close in Bahrain. Last year, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki made news at Manama by announcing details of an alternative fuel-swap plan.

Anxieties about Iran's intentions remain high in the Gulf, and regional support for a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, once limited to private conversations with Westerners, is occasionally emerging into the open.

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Another Russian reset

Posted Monday, 22 November, 12:43 

Welcome to Manama Voices

Posted Friday 19 November, 10:00

By Alexander Nicoll, Director of Editorial, IISS

This new blog is the place to go to keep up to date with the Manama Dialogue. The 7th IISS Regional Security Summit will be held from 3 to 5 December in Manama, Bahrain.  On this page, you can get news of speakers, and comments about regional security developments from IISS experts. You can follow the latest mentions of the Dialogue on Twitter as well as the most recent press coverage. 

When the Dialogue begins on 3 December, we will feature blog posts and comments on the sessions from IISS experts, as well as key quotes from speakers in the plenary sessions, with photographs and video clips.

Since 2004, the Manama Dialogue has become established as the premier gathering for the national security establishments of regional countries to discuss key issues with important non-regional powers. It has seen lively sessions about key security and defence concerns of Gulf states, including the future of Iraq and of Iran’s nuclear programme. Government leaders, top ministers and officials, military leaders and academic experts have taken a full part in the debates. This unique forum has developed into an anchor of regional security.

The IISS, which this year opened a Middle East office in the Kingdom of Bahrain, is proud to convene the Dialogue. Over its 52-year history the IISS has been the leading independent authority on global security, through its research programmes and its publications such as the Military Balance. Each year it also convenes the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the Global Strategic Review in Geneva, and the Bahrain Global Forum.

This year’s Manama Dialogue will have a busy agenda and a host of prominent speakers and delegates from more than 20 countries.

Follow it on Manama Voices. Contribute your insight via Twitter, using the hashtag #IISS_ME . Send your inquiries about the Dialogue to Manama@iiss.org.