Mr Chairman, distinguished participants of the Manama Dialogue,
it is always a great pleasure to participate in the Manama Dialogue. I think this is the third time that I have
been present. I should have been here
last year, but because of the unfortunate incidents I could not attend.
I believe all of us who are present here recognise the fact that
the Manama Dialogue has achieved a well‑deserved reputation as an international
conference of high standing and it always, therefore, a pleasure to be a
participant. I commend the IISS and in
particular Dr. Chipman, its Director General, for bringing together this
extraordinary range of policy makers and experts for this conference.
Mr Chairman, I propose to organise my remarks this afternoon by
firstly focussing on current trends in nuclear power globally. Next will be some thoughts about future
trends and challenges as seen from India’s perspective. Finally I will refer to nuclear security and
underline India’s firm commitment to universal nuclear disarmament.
Mr Chairman, over the past decade, there has been a very major
change over the perception of nuclear power the world over. Today the stage is firmly set for a major
expansion in the use of nuclear power.
This renewed, widespread interest in nuclear power, accompanied by the
steady growth of the global nuclear industry, has been referred to as a global,
nuclear renaissance. Facts suggest that
this phenomenon is now here to stay.
I believe there currently about 436 nuclear power plants in
operation in the world. Over 90% of them
are in Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD)
countries. Significantly, however, of
the 53 new nuclear power reactors under construction, a very large percentage
is in non‑OECD countries, particularly in Asia.
Of particular interest to this audience is the fact that the most
important developments in nuclear power are taking place in our region.
In 2006 the GCC announced their interest in a joint nuclear
development programme. Since then the
kingdom of Bahrain and the United States have signed a memorandum of
understanding (MOU). I think this was
last year, 2008. The United Arab
Emirates has concluded a memorandum of understanding with the United States and
France with regard to nuclear power reactors.
Egypt has said that its first reactor will come on stream by 2017. Other countries that have expressed a great
deal of interest include Morocco, Yemen, Tunisia, Jordan and Algeria. There is a similar trend in South East
Asia. Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand
have all announced plans for the construction of new nuclear power plants.
In addition I believe, with Copenhagen in the background, that
there is a far greater realisation the world over of the value of nuclear power
as a clean and sustainable energy source, essential to avoid the kinds of green
house emissions against which we are struggling and to address the challenge of
climate change. A realistic estimate is
that the complete nuclear power chain from mining to reactors and waste disposal
emits only 3.24 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour. This compares extremely well with wind and
hydropower and is much less than fossil fuels.
In the larger energy source basket, nuclear power is, therefore, an
increasingly important component for the nations of the world. For a number of countries including India
nuclear power is seen as the energy coefficient for the future.
For India energy is vital; this is the engine of India’s economic
growth, which has averaged 7‑9% during the last decade. It is anticipated that by 2030 India’s
overall, projected energy deficit, if we rely only on domestic fuel resources,
would be 150,000 megawatts. By 2050 it
is expected to go up to the astronomical figure of 412,000 megawatts. Until such time as solar energy becomes an
adequate resource, nuclear power is the only effective way to bridge this
gap. Our internal studies confirm that
the various plans we have devised in terms of nuclear energy, if they are
expanded and come to fruition, it should be possible for us to produce 60,000
megawatts of nuclear energy in the foreseeable future; that is by 2030. This is significant, but it is still
inadequate to meet our energy deficit.
Believe me when I say that we are confident that, given India’s
mastery of the key aspects of our three‑stage, closed nuclear fuel cycle, we
can leapfrog into the future. Based on
ongoing research into advanced fuel cycles, our nuclear scientists have
calculated that we could close the energy deficit of more than 400,000 megawatts
by 2050. I know to many of you this may
look like wishful thinking, but let me tell that these statistics are based on
very realistic projections. We have
already passed many milestones on the way to this target. We have identified many of them and achieved
several benchmarks. Our 500 megawatt,
prototype fast breeder reactor is today in an advanced stage of
construction. We are experimenting with
an advanced heavy water reactor, which uses thorium as a fuel and has inbuilt
proliferation‑resistant characteristics.
It also has advanced safety and security features. India’s experiment with fast breeder reactors
and the use of the thorium cycle could prove extremely useful to ensure energy
security in the future.
International co‑operation is a vital aspect in progressing the
peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The
former director general of the International Atomic
Energy Authority (IAEA) has
often commended India for its very positive role in the development of nuclear
energy for peaceful purposes. I would
like to state on behalf of the Indian government that we are ready to place our
proven and wide‑ranging capacities and capabilities in civil nuclear reactors
at the disposal of those countries, which are currently engaging and emerging
in the global renaissance in nuclear energy.
We are ready to help countries with small power grids wishing to enter
nuclear power generation at low cost.
Given our experience with thorium‑based nuclear technologies, we are
ready to contribute to global research and development into new, proliferation‑resistant
fuel cycles. In many ways we are today
at the cutting edge of civil nuclear research.
Along with France and many other countries, we are participants in the
thermo‑nuclear experimental research programme.
I would like to mention to this audience that the peaceful uses
of nuclear energy extend far beyond the realms of just power and
electricity. There are many promising
applications in the area of medicine, agriculture, food production and food
preservation, as well as water desalinisation.
India has supplied Vietnam with nuclear technology to deliver cancer
therapy under a programme initiated by the IAEA. In regard to water management we have a
hybrid nuclear desalinisation demonstration project in southern India, which is
based on river osmosis and which produces nearly 2 million litres of water
per day. We have another water
desalinisation plant, which produces 4.5 million litres of water per
day. This has greatly helped to address
water shortages in some of our coastal areas.
Nuclear science is also currently engaged in rejuvenating mountain
springs, sources of drinking water in the high Himalayas.
Last year was a red-letter year from the point of view of India’s
progress in the realm of civil nuclear power.
Last year we were able to get an India‑specific safeguards programme
from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
From the Nuclear Suppliers Group we also obtained a clean exemption for
India. The Nuclear Suppliers Group
decision to resume civil nuclear co‑operation with India recognises India as a
country with advanced nuclear technology and an impeccable record of
non-proliferation. The recognition given
to India’s use of civil nuclear technology is a highly significant development
in the onward march of civil nuclear energy.
Currently we in India are witnessing an explosion in regard to several
civil nuclear co‑operation agreements with countries across the globe such as
France, Russia, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Having talked about the benefits nuclear power and energy can
achieve for nations, let me come to the issue of nuclear security. We in India have always been conscious of the
possible misuse of sensitive nuclear technologies and proliferation issues. For this reason India maintains effective
export controls on nuclear materials and related technologies. Even though we are not a party to the Nuclear
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, we have
adhered even more strictly than many NPT signatories to non-proliferation norms
and requirements. We fully endorse the
International Atomic Energy Agency’s concerns in this regard. We are fully supportive of its efforts to
raise the bar on these issues.
The task before the international community today is to adopt at
one level a more forward‑looking approach to shape the ongoing nuclear
renaissance. At another level there is a
requirement to ensure the needs of security are met and to achieve greater
safety of nuclear installations and materials.
We need to ponder on this point at some length. In terms of nuclear safety I think it is
important that the very strict norms are constantly upgraded. These should be strictly followed by any
country that wishes to enter the arena of nuclear power. This is not too difficult. The norms are easy to follow and I think the
IAEA watchdogs are very careful about what is being done there and they take
care to see that there are no leakages.
On the issue of nuclear security, however, I think the issues are
much more difficult. The most serious danger
that we see is the possibility of terrorist gaining access to nuclear materials
and technologies. I think the issue is
more complex than it is generally perceived to be. The threat is not only from outside. In some cases I think the threat is from within
and that is something about which we need to be careful.
In our view the possibility of terrorists gaining access to
nuclear materials and technologies and the shadow of nuclear terrorism is
perhaps the gravest threat to global security and mankind at this moment. An act of nuclear terrorism could have
catastrophic consequences. Strict and
adequate preventive measures are vital for this purpose. The world must acknowledge and admit the
possibility of a link between international terrorism and the possibility of
them being able to obtain nuclear material leading on to weapons of mass
destruction. We need a far more
intensive exchange of information and intelligence among nations on the issue
of nuclear security. This has to be
under the aegis of IAEA, although perhaps it can sometimes be outside it.
We need a much better idea about the protective mechanisms in
place for new nuclear installations and we must ensure that the norms
prescribed by the IAEA are very strictly followed. Additionally I believe there is a need to put
in place a proper international response in case there is a nuclear
misadventure. India has been in the
forefront in this respect. India has introduced
a resolution in the UN on measures to prevent terrorists gaining access to
weapons of mass destruction. This was
adopted by a consensus by the UN General Assembly some time ago. This is aimed at strengthening the
international resolve to prevent terrorists acquiring weapons of mass
destruction. It is in this respect that India
greatly welcomes President Obama’s initiative to host a summit on nuclear
security in April next year. India will
contribute very substantially and actively to ensure the success of this
summit.
This brings me to a more fundamental issue – promoting the
peaceful uses of atomic energy would be greatly advanced by a renewed
commitment to the universal elimination of nuclear weapons. India has a long‑standing commitment to
global, non‑discriminatory and verifiable nuclear disarmament. India was perhaps the first country in the
world to call for a ban on nuclear testing as far back as 1954. India also called for a non‑discriminatory
treaty on non-proliferation in 1965.
In 1988 at the UN General Assembly the then Prime Minister of
India, Rajiv Ghandi unfolded an action plan for ushering in a nuclear‑weapon‑free
world. This was a clarion call for
universal nuclear disarmament. In 2006
India again put forward a set of proposals at the UN General Assembly that
outlined specific steps that would lead to the elimination of nuclear
weapons. This included a proposal for
the negotiation of a nuclear weapons convention that would prohibit the
development, production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons and provide for
their elimination within a specified timeframe.
It is unfortunate that, despite the years that have passed, there
has not been much progress in regard to nuclear disarmament. We have recently felt encouraged by some
positive signs in this direction. It
would seem that nuclear disarmament is perhaps back on the international
agenda. One of the more important
proposals is the one co‑authored by Dr Kissinger, George Schultz, William Perry
and Sam Nunn, leading on to the very significant speech made by President
Barack Obama in Prague in April this year.
In that speech he outlined his vision of a world free of nuclear
weapons. This has greatly gladdened our
hearts. We also feel encouraged by the
willingness of the United States and Russia to negotiate further cuts in their
nuclear arsenals.
Finally, I want to quote from a recent speech made by my Prime
Minister at the international conference on the peaceful uses of nuclear
energy. This was in September this
year. I believe his words aptly
summarise the approach we can follow to ensure success as far as nuclear energy
is concerned, as well as its security.
‘If we can use the power of the atom wisely for the universal good, the
possibilities are unbounded. If we do
not, the consequences will also be devastating for peace and for progress that
all nations seek for their people. The
choices are stark, and the challenges are, indeed, daunting, but it is not
beyond the imagination of the human mind to devise suitable solutions and
strategies. This task will require the
collective will, wisdom, and determination of the world community, but it is a
task that can no longer be put off.
