Dr John Chipman
Minister Gönül, thank you very much for those remarks and for referring to a number of overlapping security arrangements in which Turkey finds itself. I noted that this morning many people spoke about the need for an inclusive regional security framework. Until a formal institution could be found building on this, the Manama Dialogue process would be a productive interim solution.
I noted also that Minister Mottaki reminded us that, because of the special invitation given to President Ahmadinejad in the Doha, GCC Head of State Summit meeting a couple of years ago, the GCC and Iran had discussed certain issues among themselves. I note that Dr Muhammad Al Sabah yesterday evening referred to the GCC relations with Yemen and concern about Yemen as potentially being the most important issue that will arise at the upcoming Head of State Summit meeting in Kuwait. You, sir, referred to the fact that there is now a formal strategic dialogue between the GCC and Turkey, so there seems to be an emerging trend of GCC‑plus‑one arrangements, as it were. I suspect that Hoshyar Zebari from Iraq would welcome the proliferation of these GCC‑plus‑one arrangements, so that to one day they have Iraq as a plus one. Those kinds of issues are now on the table, as well as many that each of our speakers did not have time to mention. It is now your time to animate the discussion.
Professor Dr Volker Perthes, Director, German Institute for International and Security Affairs; IISS Member
I would like to ask Foreign Minister Zebari what he thinks of the future of the conference that was called ‘Iraq and its Neighbours’ or ‘Iraq Neighbourhood’. I do not think that the GCC has become so central that we could continue working in GCC‑plus‑one formats or a series of them. With the Iraq and its neighbours conferences we had a format in which all the regional countries, plus Egypt and the G8 countries in the summit meetings, at least were participating. It had also branched out into meetings for interior ministers, so a lot of issues could be tackled under this format – many of those issues that were raised this morning, both by Minister Mottaki and by Minister Sheikh Khalid.
I hear that the Iraqi Government is no longer enthusiastic about this format. Maybe Minister Hoshyar Zebari could elaborate on what he thinks should be done and whether we should keep the format. Should we rename it, because it sounds so much as if Iraq is the main problem? We could redefine it,
because Iraq is in the centre but all of the countries have to participate in this format.
Dr Michael C Williams, Under Secretary-General and Special Coordinator for Lebanon, United Nations; IISS Member
My thanks go to both ministers for their presentations. One significant absentee from this important dialogue is Syria. In that regard, I would like to ask two questions to the two ministers. Minister Zebari, in the recent past you have been very concerned about Syria’s alleged behaviour with regard to Iraq, and indeed have brought those concerns to the UN and to the Secretary‑General. How would you characterise relations between your two countries at the moment?
With regard to Minister Gönül, Turkey played a very important role as a mediator between Syria and Israel when Mr Olmert was in power in Israel. Are there circumstances in which you could see that Turkey might resume that role? I know that Turkish/Israeli relations have not been good over the past 12 months, but you have also recently hosted a visit from an Israeli minister. I say this given the importance many of us attach to a reopening of the Syrian/Israeli track and the possibility to move forward on that.
Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS
My question is to Minister Zebari. You gave us a very encouraging picture of the Iraqi Government’s ability to manage internal security, particularly after the US forces’ withdrawal. In recent months, however, we have seen what looks like a significant escalation of violence, including car bombs in Baghdad, which I believe have been claimed by al‑Qaeda. Do you believe that this violence is purely indigenous or is there still evidence of external connectivity to al‑Qaeda leadership? What additional assurances can you offer about the Iraqi Government’s ability to contain this apparent escalation in domestic violence?
Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman, IISS
My question is to Minister Gönül. Only a few years ago, to speak very undiplomatically, it was easier to count the number of states with which Turkey had good relations than the number with which it had bad. I must say that the picture today is the complete reverse: Turkey has been building bridges in a very systematic way with practically every state in its neighbourhood, with some success. This would appear to put you in a position to extend your influence and, therefore, I want to rebound on the remark made by John Chipman in the previous session about how to bring regional states into the dialogue between the five plus one and Iran. What would Turkey’s reaction be towards participating alongside one or two other major regional states in such a dialogue, which would therefore be of the character of five plus one, plus two or three? What is your opinion of that?
Oksana Antonenko, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS
I have a question to Minister Gönül. Thank you very much for your very interesting remarks about the impressive efforts that Turkey is making in normalising relations with its neighbours. My question concerns the prospects of completing the process of normalising relations with Armenia and the impact that that might have on regional stability, particularly the prospect for the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is well known that Turkish/Armenian protocols were signed with no explicit preconditions concerning the Nagorno‑Karabakh conflict, yet it is now apparent for Turkey that it will be difficult to complete the process without any progress on the conflict. At the same time, in the last month we have heard an unprecedented number of threats coming from Azerbaijan, from the top political leadership, the Ministry of Defence and the Chief of General Staff about the threat of using force to retake the territories currently occupied by Armenia. What efforts is Turkey now investing to prevent the potential escalation of the conflict? We have seen in Georgia how quickly such a conflict can escalate. How confident are you that you can complete this very important process to normalise relations with Armenia, if no progress is achieved in the Nagorno‑Karabakh conflict?
Dr Majeed Al Alawi, Minister of Labour, Bahrain
I would like to thank the two ministers for their speeches and welcome them to the Kingdom of Bahrain. I have one question for each. Mr Zebari started his speech by saying we have a good relationship with our non‑Arab neighbours, so why do we not with our Arab neighbours. My question to the Turkish Minister, Mr Gönül is that many Central and Eastern European countries have applied to join the EU 20 years after you. What does Europe want from you to qualify for membership – to change religion?
Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS
Minister Zebari mentioned very frankly the problem of improving relations with Gulf countries. Could you comment on why that may be, specifically in reference to Riyadh? Would some changes to the next elections in Baghdad help that?
Hoshyar Zebari
The first question regarded Iraq Neighbourhood or Neighbouring Countries conferences. These were actually useful mechanisms for Iraq to interact with all of its neighbours on security and trade to find common grounds. This has a historical background. The first time three countries were involved in this process was after the invasion of Kuwait. They were Turkey, Iran and Syria. Their aim was to contain the northern area of Iraq at the time, because there was a safe haven, a no‑fly zone, and they were afraid that this may dispel into their countries. The process started in 1991‑92. After things were unsuccessful internally, they dropped the idea when the war on Iraq started.
It was the initiative of President Gül and the then Foreign Minister of Turkey to expand this Neighbouring Countries process to include all of Iraq’s neighbouring countries to help sustain Iraq’s unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty. After Iraq was liberated, thanks to the help and support of the coalition forces, Iraq wanted to join this format, but it was rejected at the beginning. The first meeting took place in Syria, and I remember they questioned Iraqi leaders on the new Government’s legitimacy to attend. The first time Iraq took part in this ministerial meeting was in Kuwait, I think in early 2004. As a foreign minister, I attended that.
General Petraeus is here. We owe a great deal to him and to his efforts to bring the situation under stabilisation. When the surge strategy started, part of the Iraqi Government’s strategy was to engage our neighbours to help support the prevention of the transit and exit of foreign fighters and terrorists, or even to ease tension between the US and Iraq. We took the initiative to host this Neighbouring Countries meeting at the ambassadorial level in Baghdad. We conducted two or three such meetings in fact, where we also added not only the immediate neighbouring countries but also the five permanent member countries (P5) and the G8. It was helpful; it was very successful then. In fact, we moved it to a ministerial meeting in Sharm-el-Sheikh and then to Istanbul and then to Kuwait.
After the Government reached agreement with the US forces for withdrawal and to assume responsibilities, there was a feeling within the Government that this format was really no longer important and could be replaced with normal bilateral dealings of sovereign countries with each other, instead of reviving or adhering to this format. Although the interior ministerial meetings continued, we have not had any foreign ministerial or ambassadorial meetings since May one or two years ago in Kuwait. That was the last one. As an idea, it remains, and we may reuse it if there is a need. At the moment, the feeling of the Iraqi Government is to replace that with bilateral relations and dealings.
The second question was on Syria. To characterise Iraq/Syria relations, unfortunately I would have to say they are problematic and not in best shape. We have recalled our ambassadors, but relations still continue. There are continuous travels. There will soon be a meeting for Arab/Turkish dialogue in Damascus, in which Iraq will participate. It will not boycott this. Relations have been problematic recently, against a background of the August, October and December bombings.
Again, I have to be very clear; my government is not accusing the Syrian Government of any direct involvement in these bombings. We in fact have information and intelligence about Iraqi Ba’athist leaders who live and operate in, and have protection and facilities, in Syria. We have resorted to international law to find justice, because we have abandoned the old habit of the previous regime to retaliate in different ways. Now we are a civil and democratic government. We have very serious intelligence that some Iraqi expatriates, members of the Ba’ath regime, of the Special Republican Guard, the Special Security Forces or the Muhaberat from the old regime have strong connections with the Syrian authorities. They live there. We have recently seen them targeting government buildings and institutions, which indicates that this is not the work of amateurs; it is not the work of foreign fighters coming across or heaven seekers. There has to be some logistical support or strategic minds and this can only be found among these groups of people or in this environment.
We have also been engaging with the Syrians. We have held three or four talks under the auspices of our Turkish friends at the Arab League, but they led nowhere. We have a problem with our relations with Syria on this issue, but we hope to overcome it. To show our goodwill, our Prime Minister and half a dozen ministers were in Damascus trying to form a strategic framework agreement with Syria. We have no hidden agenda against Syria as such.
The other question that was asked was about recent deterioration, car bombs and how Iraqi security can contain domestic violence. This violence is political. It is aimed at paralysing and embarrassing the government. It is internal but, at the same time, it is equally external. Its goal is to undermine the government and the confidence of the Iraqi people to provide security for its citizens, and its public buildings and institutions. We anticipate that, until now and the March elections, there could be some spikes of violence for that goal and to that end. However, it is not sustainable. We have seen the periods for launching this kind of violence are two months, almost – August, October and December. This shows that these groups, these terrorist networks, do not have the ability to the sustainability to carry out serious attacks. In fact, they gather all their strength and intelligence to plan spectacular attacks on innocent objectives, and so many innocent people have been killed.
The review of security procedures by the government has taken some measures to rectify the security apparatus in Iraq, and make it more accountable and vigilant. We are confident that we will be able to contain this domestic violence.
Hoshyar Zebari
My good friend Toby always asks the difficult questions. In fact, we have relations with Saudi Arabia: we have an ambassador, an embassy and a consulate in Jeddah. The Hajj season for Iraqi pilgrims went smoothly; there has been cooperation. At the political level, relations are actually not good. We have not seen any willingness or interest from the other side to move these relations a step further. As to the outcome of the elections, not only the Saudis but also many neighbouring countries are watching its outcome and how they will deal with and manage relations with the new government.
Vecdi Gönül
Thank you for the questions; they give me an opportunity to clarify Turkey’s positions on these issues. The first question was about Turkey’s role in Syrian/Israeli relations. Turkey tried to help both sides on Gaza issues. The meetings among three nations reached their fifth round, but finished after the invasion of Gaza. Now we expect both sides to demand and desire to again meet in Turkey or be mediated by Turkey. We will be happy to have both sides because we consider that both countries are our neighbours and we would like them to live in peace. On the relationship with Iran, we have had very good relations with Iran since the agreements in the 1640s. We have had the same border from that time on, so we would like to continue in this manner. Especially after some discussion on Western relations with Iran, we have tried to help both sides, Iran and the Western allies.
Normalisation of relations with Armenia is one of the most important issues for Turkey. There are three groups of Armenians. The first is Armenians living in Turkey. They are Turkish citizens and they have all rights. I believe that they are happy to be in Turkey and we are happy to have them in Turkey. Then there is the Diaspora living all around the world. This is something else. We concentrate on relations with Armenia on the basis of our policy of zero problems with our neighbours. We have many neighbours; we are trying to resolve our problems with them and so far it has been successful.
Our Minister of Foreign Affairs signed a protocol with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia. The protocol has not been endorsed by Parliament and this protocol has no precondition other than our relations. We believe that this protocol and the progress between our two countries also helps the Nagorno‑Karabakh issue. Armenia occupied 20% of Azerbaijan’s legal and internationally-recognised territory 19 years ago, and nothing has happened since that time. The Minsk Group was supposed to solve the problem but they have done very little. With this protocol and better relations between Turkey and Armenia, we hope we also can contribute to resolving this issue.
On EU-Turkey relations, you said it had been 20 years. It has been more than 43 years. Turkey applied for EU membership in 1959. There have been some interruptions since that time and now we are a member of a customs union with the EU and we are negotiating about what we can do. Our relationship with the EU is so important because 5.5 million Turks are living in EU countries and 60% of our foreign trade is done with EU countries. That is more than $150 billion. Therefore, we will continue these relations with the EU for as long as they do not want us. We will continue this policy in our national foreign policy. Thank you.
Ellen Laipson, President and CEO, The Henry L. Stimson Centre
I wondered if we might take advantage of the two ministers here to talk in greater depth on Turkey-Iraq relations. We have seen a very important improvement given that Turkey now will deal directly with the Kurdish regional government whilst maintaining very strong ties to Baghdad. However, there is one dark cloud on the horizon and that is the issue of water scarcity, and I wondered if both ministers could tell us to what extent the issue of increasing drought conditions in Iraq is something that Turkey might be able to help Iraq with, and how both countries are looking at water scarcity as a potential source of conflict. Thank you.
General (Retd) Dr Klaus Naumann, Vice President, German Atlantic Association (ATA)
My question is for Minister Gönül. Minister, your country, as well as my country, benefited and still benefits from extended nuclear deterrents, which have turned out to be one of the most successful instruments of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Do you imagine that you could take advantage of your good relations with Iran to explain to Iran confidentially that there might be other effective instruments of seeking protection against nuclear threats in an environment in which nuclear countries exist rather than by going for a nuclear armaments programme? I am asking this question against the background of the NPT Review Conference in May next year. If there were to be any remaining indications of ambiguity, we might easily run the risk that the NPT Review Conference fails, which could lead to a world that we all do not wish to see. Thank you.
Dr John Chipman
Just to clarify, you were not inviting Turkey to convince Iran that some other nuclear power might extend its nuclear deterrent capacity in favour of Iran.
General Klaus Naumann
There are other instruments, such as security guarantees leading in the long run to nuclear-free weapon zones and things like this.
Dr John Chipman
That is different.
Tobby Simon, CEO, Synergia
My question is to His Excellency, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iraq. Thank you very much for your excellent presentation. You have listed the key challenges faced by a democratic Iraq, namely global warming, water, food scarcity, terrorism, and unemployment. Would you be kind enough to speak of the steps that Iraq has taken or will take to reduce corruption and ensure protection of minorities? We all know that increased corruption coupled with unemployment and a lack of faith in the administration can challenge the democratic framework that your country has so carefully built.
Major General Ali Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman, National Security Agency and Head, Presidential Office, Yemen
[Arabic:
Thank you. I wish to address Iraqi foreign minister, HE Hoshyar Zebari. By way of an introduction, I would like to agree with His Excellency on the Arab estrangement that we have all witnessed during the crisis that took place in Iraq. Some of us may find the deteriorating security conditions in post-war Iraq a reason to justify that estrangement. The truth is that such a state of estrangement left the door open for some powers that have certain agendas, and that added fuel to the fire of conflicts and hazards threatening Iraq lately. We all look forward to seeing Iraq overcome that crisis.
We are also keen on directing the Arab drive so that it would ensure that Iraq regains its role in its Arab and regional context, as well as on the global scene. His Excellency the Minister referred to some Arab countries enhancing their presence in brotherly Iraq. I wish to remind His Excellency that during the hard times Iraq went through, Yemen retained its diplomatic mission and has recently decided to send back its ambassador to Iraq and an ambassador was named for the job. Iraq, too, accepted the return of the Yemeni ambassador. Actually, in all Arab and international circles, Yemen was constantly keen on pushing forward drives meant to enhance the Arab, regional and international presence in Iraq, instead of leaving the scene vacant before powers seeking to serve their own agendas in Iraq.
As a matter of fact, Your Excellency, I would like to ask a question, given what we read or hear about in some mass media. Since we are all keen on the safety and stability of brotherly Iraq, are you concerned about the alleged role of some Israeli organizations in northern Iraq, in terms of the safety and stability of brotherly Iraq? Thank you. ]
Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation, IISS
I have a question for Minister Gönül. Sir, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that Turkey shares the concerns of the international community about Iran’s nuclear programme. These concerns are exacerbated by Iran’s very energetic development of ballistic missiles, missiles which include Turkey in their range. It has been noted that until recently plans to defend against Iran’s missile threat did not cover Turkey, although President Obama’s recent shift in the European missile defence plan does now include Turkey. It would require radars based on Aegis ships in the Mediterranean and some land-based systems. Would Turkey welcome the deployment of such radars and interceptors on Turkish soil and in Turkish waters in order to better protect both Turkey and the region from the threat of Iranian missiles?
Dr Amira El Shanawany, Political Advisor, Bureau of the Speaker of Parliament, Egypt
My question is to Minister Zebari. With the huge penetration and presence of Iranians as well as Israelis in Iraq, after the occupation, I wonder what kind of relations there will be between the Iranians and Israelis in Iraq in the future, especially after the American withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. Do you expect it to be a cooperative relationship that maintains their interests or a conflicting relationship? Thank you.
Hong Jong-ki, Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Saudia Arabia
I will be very brief. My question is to Minister Zebari. The Iranian foreign minister eloquently talked about democracy in Iraq and I wish he had spoken about democracy in Iran. My question to you, Sir, is: how do you assess the evolution of political forces in Iran 30 years after the Iranian Revolution? Secondly, if Iran continues to pursue a nuclear weapons programme, how would it affect Iraq’s strategic calculus vis-à-vis Iran? Thank you very much.
Dr John Chipman
I will turn to the speakers in reverse order, if I can. Minister Gönül, I invite you to go first, particularly on issues of water security and missile defence.
Vecdi Gönül
Thank you, Chairman. The first question was about Iraq-Turkey relations in terms of the regional government. Our relations with the regional government are based on the Iraqi constitution. Of course, our main relations are with the central government of Iraq but we have a border with the regional government so we have some local relations with the regional government on some issues. On the question of Iran’s nuclear work or study or whatever you call it, the questioner started by confidently stating something. I cannot declare openly if we can say this with confidence. Our relations with Iran are based on friendship and we are trying to help each other on every issue, including this issue.
On missile defence systems, at the beginning the US tried to install a missile defence system in the Czech Republic and Poland. That would not have covered Turkey and Greece, so we asked them to make it a NATO system rather than a US system. Now they have changed their intentions; we are in discussions with the US and our NATO allies about how we can cover all NATO allies against all kinds of threats. We are not targeting one country; we are discussing covering all NATO countries against all missile threats or air threats.
Hoshyar Zebari
On the question of water resources and whether it could be a potential point of conflict in the future, there is a serious problem with water resources in the region because of the drought, because of climate changes, and because of the management of water resources. As you know, Iraq depends on its neighbours for its water supply, from Turkey and Iran. In fact, there have been serious problems in terms of the supply of water, both from our Turkish brothers in the north and even more from our Iranian brothers from the east, for example blocking and diverting certain rivers that were flowing across the international border into Iraq.
However, recently there has been more cooperation between Iraq and Turkey to increase the flow of water and there has been better coordination. This has to do with Syria also, especially regarding the Euphrates. We need to make some trilateral arrangements between Turkey, Iraq and Syria in order to ensure a just amount of water. Relations have improved a great deal between Iraq and Turkey on many levels and, as you said, in fact the Turkish foreign minister paid an historic visit to Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, to reach out directly to the Kurdish regional authorities. It was as important as President Gul’s visit to Armenia so we have welcomed that. We are moving also on trade, on economic relations, and on construction.
Sometimes, yes, there are still some problems. We have a common interest to combat the PKK terrorism on the borders, we have joint trilateral commission between Iraq, Turkey and the United States. But there are problems also, on the future of the country, where we are going. Definitely, we get sensitive when we see our neighbours trying to interject ourselves on how this country could be run or elected or governed. We heard from my Turkish friend, in his remarks, speaking about Kirkuk, for instance. Kirkuk is an Iraqi city; it is within the sovereignty of Iraq and the Iraqi people have to decide that according to their constitution and their law. But relations are improving, actually. There is a better air of confidence and atmosphere and co-operation, and this is beneficial to both countries. I think my government welcomes that, and there is recently we signed a strategic cooperation, and a number of other agreements and mutual understandings between our two countries to move their relations forward.
On the other question, regarding steps taken by the government on corruption. We mentioned a number of challenges we see. The regional challenges we failed to mention: corruption and the protection of minorities. In fact, there is corruption in Iraq, as in many other countries in the region, but the government has been transparent in fighting corruption through the Public Integrity Board of fighting corruption, the Inspector Generals in all the Ministries, and through Parliamentary oversight. This will take time. We admit that there is corruption in the country, because of the transformation, because of the lack of checks and balances, but the government is fighting that seriously, openly and publicly.
As for the protection of minorities, I think that the rights of all minorities in Iraq are protected in the constitution, in the legal system. One of the problems that election law was delayed was about the quota for minorities to ensure their full representation in the new assembly. So, we do not have a problem, as if there were questions raised about targeting the Christians by certain extremists, this is not government policy. The government has no discrimination whatsoever. In fact, the targeting of Christian minorities in Iraq is done by the same people who blow up government buildings, who kill Shia, and who kill Sunnis at the same time. It comes from the same people, from the same mind who tried to derail the process by whatever means.
As for the question of our Yemeni friends [Arabic: sharing with I agree with you on the necessity of an Arab drive! True, since the onset of the change, the Yemeni mission has been open and we appreciate the naming of a certain ambassador to be dispatched to Iraq. He will be warmly welcomed when he arrives. The Iraqi Yemeni relations are quite important on more than one level. We have a significant Iraqi community in Yemen. Officers from the former Iraqi army are now working in Yemen. ]
How Iraq will be affected by a nuclear Iran, I think was the question? We have kept a low profile here, to be frank with you, because of our many preoccupations. But, going back to the history, if there was any country worried about this development, it would be Iraq. We have made our position clear from the beginning, that we support Iran’s right for peaceful nuclear power, as the position of any other country, but at the same time, we have been speaking frankly – more than anyone else – to our Iranian friends, about the dangers, consequences and need to cooperate and be transparent and accountable. I think we have a very useful role to play. Contrary to the perception that there might be other players, I think our channel to them has been the most effective, and they do listen to many of the things we have. So, our position is the position of the international community on this. We do not support any nuclear proliferation in the region, in the Gulf or in the Middle East as a whole. We have just signed an additional protocol for the IAEA, in order to free ourselves from United Nations sanctions that have been imposed on us. We are aware of the consequences of developing nuclear or weapons of mass destruction, and the consequences my country have suffered, and we are still carrying that burden.
Dr John Chipman
Minister Zebari, Minister Gönül, thank you very much for both your presentations and the answers to questions. I think we have had a very rich debate on the complex series of diplomatic relationships that try to provide more security to the region. I think there is a great deal of food for thought.
