As Delivered:
[Arabic Introduction]
Distinguished guests, it is my great pleasure to be here today, and to participate in such a distinguished company in the 2009 Manama Dialogue. I want to thank you for this opportunity to outline my views on regional security and cooperation, and indeed, for your constructive and informative participation.
Historically, Gulf security has always been an important issue not only for the countries of the Gulf but also for international powers beyond our region. To put it in perspective, the reality is that since the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th Century, the international factor has been ever-present, and always relevant in consideration of Gulf security. This is unlikely tot change in the foreseeable future; indeed, globalisation, the modern information environment and emerging security challenges suggest that global interconnectedness will increase further in the decades to come, heightening international interest in our regional affairs.
So, all interested countries, whether inside or outside the Gulf will have regional stability and order as the basic aim of any security arrangement. It is therefore both desirable and inevitable that any durable and successful Gulf security arrangements should be inclusive of all interested and willing regional and international countries. In reality, all of us in the region have shared mutual interest with outside powers.
In my view, there are two basic schools of thought on Gulf security. The first, we can call the ‘Logical Perspective’. In this view, the ideal security arrangements for the Gulf must logically be based on the involvement of the GCC, Iran and Iraq, as well as influential international powers. In this scenario, there develops a stable, inclusive, regional security architecture, one that is able to encompass the concerns and interests of all parties to ensure consensual and credible responses to security threats.
ON the other hand, the second perspective, what I call, ‘The Realist Perspective’, takes into consideration that order and stability in the region should be formulated according to existing realties, and the regional environment as we find it today, taking advantage of all available pragmatic needs. Regardless of the ideal, a viable regional security arrangement must recognise what is realistically achievable, given current realities: making the best of what we have, rather than striving for an unreachable goal.
For me, the best approach is to view these distinctions as transitional rather than permanent. I believe, personally, that the regional and international environment is not yet ready for the logical Gulf security scenario. We are to accept realist position as a practical alternative. But that does not mean we should not aspire for better, or work to achieve the ideal arrangements. To reach this goal, though we have a long road to take, involving many small incremental steps on security and other issues, between concerned parties. We are where we are – the realist scenario – but our end game must be the logical scenario. The question is how to get there.
There is no doubting that the region continues to face a range of challenges, some long-standing, some new and emerging. Moreover, historical legacies continue to influence today’s views and colour the judgments of concerned parties. Further, today’s challenges force us to examine anew the strategic space, what we refer to as ‘The Gulf’. A holistic view of Gulf security must also encompass threats, emerging from further afield: the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and recognise the impact of events in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Horn of Africa, and the role of providing new motivations for non-state actors to threaten national and regional security.
Moreover, the unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict remains a source of instability, resentment and incitement for those who might seek threaten to regional security. A lasting resolution for this conflict requires a firm commitment to international legitimacy, the principle of international law, and a relevant United Nations Resolution, would be a significant boost to Gulf security, and a key plank of a future regional security cooperation within the broader context of a more stable and secure middle east.
In light of these developing challenges, we therefore need a serious reappraisal of security in the Gulf region, in order to pave the way for us to achieve the logical scenario: as things stand, there are daunting challenges to and structural divisions within the current Gulf regional environment, which need to be properly addressed if we are to achieve this goal. At the same time, we cannot afford any vacuum as we move from the realist to the logical scenario. Gulf security must be credibly maintained, and the challenge will be to evolve regional security cooperation and structure, and to strengthen and inclusive dialogue with regional and extra-regional partners, while ensuring that we do not take our eyes from both present and future security challenges. Thus, while a future security partnership is a long-term project, a solid and pragmatic security framework must not neglect current and short-term challenges.
On this basis, I believe that we have to maintain and strengthen the existing security arrangements, what I would term the status score extra, or the status score plus, a concept which at the same time, prepares the way for dual engagement with Iran and Iraq, as long-term partners in regional security. This will also entail expanding our concept of the Gulf. As I outlined, Gulf security cannot and should not be detached or considered separately from an assessment of the wider regional and international strategic security situation. Threats are beyond, sometimes far beyond, our land or maritime borders. The question we now face, both in the region and beyond is how to move from today’s reality to our aims for future regional security cooperation. What specific issues need to be addressed and what measures taken to move us towards this strategic goal of dual engagement? Moreover, how do we align this dual engagement with a productive and engaged role for extra-regional powers in Gulf security?
First and foremost, there needs to be confidence on all sides in the intention and good faith of other parties. Again, a process rather than a single step, and one which will require the long-term building of trust through a range of initiatives of varying scale, and in a range of fields, both security and non-security. Nevertheless, cooperation in the region between the main Gulf countries already exists as a foundation for further development. Whether in trade, economics, or culture, a substantial basis of existing cooperation, and working relationships between regional countries is already in place. The challenge is to translate this into the security field, and furthermore, to convince regional states that outside actors can play a constructive role in Gulf security.
Secondly, the Gulf countries need to ensure that the region itself has a credible voice in its own security. The GCC is already moving positively in this direction. We have to strengthen our national capacities through the acquisition of advanced equipment, technologies, infrastructure and expertise, and we have worked to develop our regional security through increased regional defence cooperation: interoperability, joint exercises and information sharing. Already, the GCC is essentially the only political and economic bloc in the region and for its member states, it will remain the fundamental basis of cooperation, security and international influence.
Significant as these steps are, we cannot stand still in such circumstances. I believe that it is imperative for the GCC countries themselves to begin planning for their own new strategic concept. We really need this new strategic concept in the GCC, and I hope that this will be discussed in the next summit. A new doctrine for the next decade and beyond, a concept which sets out the GCC’s vision of its role in regional security, a concept which explicitly recognises the external threats to the security of GCC states, and a concept which details options for engaging with regional and extra-regional countries in the years ahead, to develop or security cooperation. Beyond that, we might consider moving towards a wider regional strategic concept, through which all the countries of the Gulf can engage in a dialogue to shape their future defence outlook, how the region relates to itself and others and how each party can make a constructive contribution to the security of such a globally vital region.
Such a regional strategic concept might encompass dialogue on issues such as proliferation, and the need to eliminated weapons of mass destruction from the Gulf and the Middle East; the need for full engagement on issues of concern or dispute; the impact and potentially negative sequences of applying international sanctions against regional states; the role and consequences of military options in addressing security threats. They are all of non-regional countries and organisations and Gulf security, and the need for increased transparency, dialogue, information sharing, and confidence building on military and security matters. There are, I believe, existing areas in regional states, not just those of GCC, which can benefit from increased security cooperation, for example, in working together to combat piracy and to strengthen maritime. I am glad that the Bahrain navy participated in this a month ago.
Based on such developing cooperation and, over time, a more developed strategic concept might itself become more formalised and detailed, perhaps providing the groundwork and foundation for regional security cooperation and architecture, and meets the ideal, namely, of an inclusive, effective and comprehensive arrangement that is able to address both intra-regional differences and external threats to regional security by drawing on the commitment to sources and good faith of all concerned states, both within and outside the Gulf.
Distinguished guests, in summary, I believe that the outlines of the ideal future regional security cooperation are clear in what I have called the 'logical perspective', but we all recognise that this ideal requires an enormous amount of hard work and depends on the political will and commitment of all parties, both within and outside the Gulf region. Nevertheless, the existing and continuing cooperation within the region offers the potential to act as a foundation through a gradual, evolutionary long-term process of developing and building confidence, trust and cooperation – a process that in itself will be of great benefit to the Gulf and beyond. Thank you.
