John mentioned my former formal association with the Prime Minister of India, but I stepped down from my official position about four months ago, so I do not speak here as an official of the government. But since I continue to be his speech writer, I assume that what I say here reflects the thinking of the Prime Minister. I have tried to quote from some of his recent speeches in order to be able to communicate directly his thinking on issues that are being discussed today. I therefore speak in my personal capacity.
‘We meet here in the shadow of the terrorist attack in Mumbai and I know that the audience here would want to hear the Indian perspective. So I choose to quote at some length from what the Prime Minister said in Parliament just last week. As far as the Mumbai attack is concerned, India sees it as a very calculated and sinister attack intended to cause widespread terror and damage to the image of India. The forces behind the attacks wanted to destabilise our secular polity, create communal discord and undermine our country’s economic and social progress.
‘I believe we have to work at three levels. Firstly we have to galvanise the international community into dealing sternly and effectively with the epicentre of terrorism which is located in Pakistan. The infrastructure of terrorism has to be dismantled permanently. This is for the good of the entire world community, including the wellbeing of the people of Pakistan. It is time for the international community to squarely confront the challenge of terrorism. The use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy is no longer acceptable. There should be no double standards in the global fight against terrorism. There are no good terrorists and bad terrorists. There is no cause that justifies the massacre of innocent people.
‘Secondly, we have taken up strongly with the government of Pakistan their use of territory for launching an attack of this kind, and the need for the strongest possible action against the perpetrators of such ghastly acts. The world community must be convinced that action by Pakistan against the brutal perpetrators of these crimes against humanity will be effective and sustained over time. We have so far acted with utmost restraint, but let not our commitment to civilised norms be misconstrued as a sign of weakness. Every perpetrator, organiser and supporter of terror, whatever his affiliation, religion or location, must pay the price for such cowardly and horrific acts against our people. We have noted the reported steps that have been taken by Pakistan, but clearly much more needs to be done and the actions should be pursued to their logical conclusion.
‘Thirdly, we need to recognise as a nation that we cannot depend on either of these two approaches for obtaining the outcomes that we desire. The Mumbai incident has highlighted gaps in our preparedness to deal with these kinds of assaults. We need to equip ourselves more effectively to deal with this unprecedented challenge to our country’s integrity and unity.’
Terrorism and extremism in all its manifestations seek to challenge and undermine India’s plural, secular and liberal democracy. In so doing, these forces of intolerance pose a challenge to open and free societies around the world. The success of the Indian experiment of building a modern democracy in a poor country on the foundations of an ancient society and culture is vital to the very future of democracy and to peace, security, stability and progress in our region as well as the whole world.
As a developing economy that is home to the largest concentration of poor and illiterate people, India has some distance to travel in terms of its own economic development before it can acquire a larger regional or global profile. Moreover, how India responds to the current global, economic crisis and slowdown, and how it is impacted by it, will also shape the new dynamics of globalisation. India’s strategic worldview, therefore, derives from this reality. This perspective was best elaborated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a couple of years ago when he addressed the senior military leadership in India. He said "Our strategy has to be based on three broad pillars: first, the strength in ourselves economically and technically; second, to acquire adequate defence capability to counter and rebut threats to our security; and third to seek partnerships both on the strategic front and on the economic and technological front to widen our policy and developmental options."
Widening India’s development option lies at the core of Indian strategic policy. India’s relations with major powers, with our neighbours and with other powers in Asia is shaped by the single-minded focus on improving the wellbeing and livelihood security of our people, and in creating an external environment conducive to our long term sustained development. Further, India’s investment in human development and the building of a globally competitive knowledge-based economy will determine to what extent India is able to face the challenge by the rise of new economies in Asia.
The India economy is on an upward growth trajectory. Compared to virtual stagnation and growth in the first half of the 20th century, the first three decades after our independence posted 3.5% annual growth. But in the last 25-30 years the economy has grown by over 6%. And in the past five years we have recorded a rate of growth of 9%. This acceleration of growth in the past half a century is based on increasing savings and investment at home. These are likely to be sustained because of demographic trends and the spread of urbanisation. The challenge for India is to ensure upwards of 8% growth in the next two decades. This requires investment in infrastructure, both urban and rural, in education and in manufacturing and agriculture development. This also requires economic reform at home, especially in the land and labour markets, and in public services delivery.
India’s biggest strength on the economic front is the growth of an indigenous private enterprise. Indian business and professional classes are able to increasingly compete in the global market. However, India has to increase the productivity of all its factors of production to be able to sustain this growth process.
On a per capita basis, India is not well endowed in terms of the availability of energy, water, food, and other natural resources. Hence food and energy security emerge as two vital areas of strategic importance for us. India requires a second green revolution with a wider ambit covering non-food crops to help address this challenge in the context of rising incomes and changing consumption habits.
India’s energy needs will increase exponentially with growth, modernisation and urbanisation. The strategic importance of energy security has acquired a new profile in the context of global warming and climate change. India has vast reserves of coal and hydropower potential, but environmental concerns may limit our ability to tap into these resources; hence developing nuclear energy and non-commercial energy sources has become a strategic priority for us. India’s search for nuclear energy has shaped its diplomatic relations as well, and you are all familiar with the new international regime as far as India’s civil nuclear programme is concerned.
Given her resources deficiency on a per capita basis, India will become an increasingly trade-dependent nation. It will have a greater strategic stake in the nature of the global trading and maritime order. A rule-based, transparent, multilateral trading system is therefore in India’s strategic interests.
As a founder member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), India would like to see this organisation strengthened and become more active. India would like to see it function in a manner that will support the developmental aspirations of developing countries. Given the importance of external trade and dependence on external sources of energy, ensuring the safety and security of the Indian Ocean region is of vital national security importance for India. These maritime interests will increasingly shape India’s defence strategy, placing far more importance on India’s naval capabilities.
India has a strategic stake in strengthening multilateral institutions like the United Nations, WTO, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank in seeking a greater voice in their management and in their policies. The past decade has witnessed the emergence of new groupings of countries based on changing economic and strategic equations, both at the global and regional levels. India ill remain actively engaged in as many of these groups as is necessary.
Given India’s energy needs, the outcome of multilateral negotiations on climate change and carbon emissions will be of vital strategic importance to India. India cannot allow environmental security alone to be the motivating factor. India’s economic security will have to be factored in to any global regime for climate change.
India’s overdue membership of the UN Security Council will enable her to be more actively engaged in the management of globalisation and the growing multi-polarity of the global system. However, how effectively India is able to play this role will depend to a large extent on her own domestic politics and the shaping the domestic public opinion. India’s strategic neighbourhood spans a wide area, from the Persian Gulf and East Africa to the Malacca Straits and the eastern reaches of the Indian Ocean. India will be actively engaged with all the littoral states of the Indian Ocean region.
With the industrial economies of East Asia on one side, and the markets of Europe, west and central Asia, and Africa on the other, India is placed at the strategic crossroads of an emerging global economy, with the new industrialising economies of Asia and the markets of Africa, central Asia, and Eastern Europe. Hence it will have to be actively engaged in the management of the security of this entire region. Active participation in the East Asia Summit and the creation of an East Asian community has strategic importance for India for both political and economic reasons. The growth of East Asian economies and India’s increased economic interaction with them has raised the profile of this community. Equally, India will remain engaged with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and other such regional associations like the Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the nascent Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation.
India’s full participation in an East Asian community has been the main focus of her ‘look east’ policy. To quote the prime minister again: ‘A decade ago, we unveiled our "look east" policy; this is more than a mere political slogan or a foreign policy orientation. It has a strong economic rationale and commercial content. We wish to look east because of the centuries of interaction between us. We envision an Asian economic community which encompasses ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea and India. Such a community would release enormous creative energies of our people. One cannot but be captivated by the vision of an integrated market spanning the distance from the Himalayas to the Pacific Ocean, linked by efficient road, rail, air and shipping services. This community of nations would constitute an arc of advantage across which there would be large-scale movement of people, capital, ideas and creativity.’
India has also launched a new look west policy in the neighbourhood by strengthening her relationships with the Gulf States. The historic visit to India of the king of Saudi Arabia and the initiative to seek closer economic relations with member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council has shifted the emphasis away from politics to economics in India’s relations with the Arab world. For reasons of energy security, and given the large dollar remittances sent home by the Indian community in this region, as well as the employment potential of the region, relations with the Gulf region have great relevance for India’s economic security.
Again, to quote the prime minister at a conference of his own party last year: ‘We have had an historic and long-standing relationship with the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Over 50 citizens are working their for their livelihood. We have always sought peace in this region, be it in Iraq, be it Iran, or be it in any other country of the region. The bulk of our petroleum and energy requirements come from this region, and our energy security is critically dependent on it. It has been, and will be, our sincere effort to reduce tensions and to promote peace, progress and harmony in the region.’
Economics also defines India’s renewed engagement with Africa. Energy security and the search for natural resources and markets lends to Africa a new strategic dimension. India will invest in Africa and support African economies, mainly through the increased engagement of private Indian enterprise. At the first India-Africa Summit held in New Delhi earlier this year, India extended a duty-free tariff preference scheme for all the LDCs in the region.
India’s stability and progress are vital to regional security and to the orderly progress of all nations in this entire region, spanning the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean region, and up to the Malacca Straits. Throughout history, India has been the source of economic wellbeing, prosperity, and social development in this region. Hence the region has a stake in India’s progress, security and stability as an open economy and an open society.
