Your Highnesses, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 5th IISS Manama Dialogue. We, at the IISS, are delighted to be in Bahrain this month, celebrating our 50th Anniversary. When the IISS was established 50 years ago, the founders wished to create an independent organisation for the study and analysis of political, military and strategic trends. In particular, the challenge of how to conduct civilised international relations in the nuclear age was at the centre of our concerns.
Over time we have grown into a global organisation, interested in understanding the roots of conflict and the opportunities for conflict resolution. In our analysis and our diplomatic work we try to marry the regional perspective with global realities. Fifty years on, the nuclear issue has not gone away. Asia and the Middle East have seen a rise in their share of international power and influence.
We look forward, starting this month, to another generation of growth for the IISS, providing reliable information and analysis, and encouraging effective defence diplomacy and international reconciliation. Thank you for joining us tonight.
This December is a transition month, more than most others. US President-elect Obama is preparing for office, having named key figures of his Cabinet. The rest of the world thinks it knows a great deal about the apparent priorities in foreign policy of the new administration. While on assuming office the President will concentrate on the economic and financial crisis; his national security team will consult allies, adopt a multilateral approach to diplomacy, and search for ways to engage rivals and opponents in the service of US national security interests.
The normal instincts of US allies, friends, partners and others around the world in such periods is to gossip about the personalities that have retained or assumed power, wait and see what campaign promises are kept and which are dropped, express the hope for a more informed and sensitive US approach to regional concerns, and prepare to study – and eventually comment – on whatever US initiatives emerge.
If countries wish to avoid the disenchantment that typically results from such a passive attitude, it will be necessary to adopt a more imaginative and extrovert approach to the shaping of regional destinies. Staying silent or diffident and then complaining when the United States or others adopt ill-suited strategies for regional security is a diplomatic formula whose attractiveness and effectiveness is low.
All countries in the Gulf are interested in taking more control over regional political trends. Until recently, what has been missing is a forum through which regional security ideas can be debated with all the right actors engaged. This Manama Dialogue offers a unique opportunity for Gulf States to take the initiative in influencing not just the US, but others, on the right approach to the crowded regional security agenda. Europeans and Asians also, have an increased responsibility for contributing in different ways to regional stability.
Just as there are more trans-national issues on the security agenda: terrorism, piracy, drug and people trafficking, so the responses have to be trans-regional in nature, involving in different ways all the states represented here.
What the wide participation in this Manama Dialogue demonstrates is that the boundaries of Gulf security extend way beyond the traditional frontiers of formal regional diplomatic or security organisations. Only an inclusive approach to building regional stability is likely to succeed.
At this Manama Dialogue, revised policies could begin to take shape on a number of issues, especially involving Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, maritime security, and the campaign against terrorism. How might the new US administration be advised to engage with Iran and, if it does, how can the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) ensure that its interests are secured? In the next round of potential negotiations with Iran, could key Gulf Arab States become part of the formal negotiating structure with Iran over the nuclear issue, just as regional Asian powers are part of the Six Party Talks on the North Korean issue? After all, if Iran were to become one day a military nuclear power, it is the balance of power in the Gulf that would be most affected. Even if they prefer to stay out of the nuclear discussions, Gulf Arab States should nevertheless wish to lay out clearly what broader arrangements for Gulf security involving Iran would be complementary to their own interests, and thus avoid outcomes in which they become ‘part of the package’ in some future settlement with Iran.
The US President-elect stated during his campaign that his administration would be prepared to meet Iran without preconditions. Against that background, it will be interesting to learn if Iran has an equally flexible approach to direct dialogue with the United States.
Recently, more GCC States have sent ambassadors to Iraq to give that country strengthened Arab diplomatic support. But in what other ways can Gulf Arab States help positively to shape the destiny of the fractured Iraqi policy that has now taken the sovereign decision to retain US assistance?
The US, the UK and its NATO partners are struggling in Afghanistan. More troops and more money will not be enough to turn the situation around. The establishment of some kind of regional contact group to channel diplomatic energies more effectively towards Afghanistan is important. Can such a group be composed, and could it become an effective interlocutor with Kabul?
Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and generally in the region is a rising risk. India has taken a lead in authorising its navy to take assertive action against the pirates. It would wish to find ways to collaborate effectively on maritime security with the Gulf States, as well as with US and European navies: what initiatives would be worth pursuing?
The GCC states have considerable experience in counter-terrorism and de-radicalisation. The recent terror attacks in Mumbai have raised more concerns, not just about Indo-Pakistani conflicts, but the potential surge of sectarian conflict among Indians. Given the large immigrant labour population from South Asia in the Gulf, the region has a direct interest in promoting stability in that difficult part of the world.
All these issues, and others, will be on the table at this Manama Dialogue in Bahrain. A strong set of views from the governments represented here would help to set the diplomatic agenda for 2009. We look forward to assisting that debate, and then working with you through 2009, in preparation for next year’s Manama Dialogue to ensure that this event leads to a more continuous process of consultations, in which the IISS will play its role.
To start this important process, it is a pleasure for me to introduce our Opening Speaker tonight, our friend, our host, and the Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain, a man prepared to put forward new ideas, Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalifa.