I would like to thank Minister Zhai and Vice President Al Hashimi for their excellent presentations and their contributions to this debate.
I would like to offer some concluding remarks and thanks. This Fourth Manama Dialogue convened of course at a very difficult time in regional and international politics. The states in this region have suffered three large wars over the last two decades. There is now fantastic economic growth and dynamism, but the security picture remains extremely murky.
The level of interstate tension has grown in this region, with uncertainty over the political future and internal balance of Iraq and the uncertainty over the regional ambitions of Iran, and the way that they would be handled by the international community. At the same time, the strength of movements and groups against states and central authorities has grown in the Gulf.
Indeed, especially in this region, the state has been attacked from above and below. From above, the state has been attacked by the appeal of a general transnational Muslim solidarity and added its extremes by the calls for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. From below, the state has been attacked by the revived primacy of tribal and sectarian affiliations. The result is that, in this region, the state is not a key point of reference for many citizens in some countries, and state authority is not recognised as necessarily the most paramount governing power in the organisation of the lives of individuals in those countries.
In general, of course, these trends towards wider transnational solidarities and narrower sectarian ones exist also outside the Middle East. Where they do exist, they also weaken the power of states to control local and wider diplomatic agendas.
This meeting has helped to sharpen our understandings of the way enlightened leadership in this region, by focusing on education, labour reform, political progress and diverse economic development, can bring the younger generation up to feel the stake that they have in feeling simultaneously pride in their culture, their nation, and their equal place in a cosmopolitan international society. That in turn will give states in the region an ability to advance with greater agility their regional and international interests.
That economic and political development can only take place against a background of basic stability. There was acknowledgement and appreciation during this meeting of the key role that the United States plays, at the request of the leaders of many of the countries in the region, to provide that security assurance on which dynamic economic growth could rely. Equally there was an appeal for that security relationship to rest on an ever‑stronger consultative basis, where the points of view of regional countries were considered earlier in Washington’s policy formulation. As a person coming from Europe, this recalls the appeal that was heard in Washington, made by Europeans, throughout the time of the Cold war.
The challenge for those in the Gulf now, as it has been at other times for Europeans and Asians who have engaged with the United States, is to develop the extrovert diplomatic practices that can succeed in penetrating those complex interagency debates and executive branch congressional relations in the United States.
We heard also, during this meeting, that however particular the security challenges in the Gulf were to the Gulf, resolution of the Israeli‑Palestinian issue remained the condition precedent to full‑hearted internal and regional reconciliations.
This meeting also heard the interests of Asian states – China, Japan and India – to find acceptable ways themselves directly to contribute to regional security. That is a subject that we will want to explore further in future Manama dialogues, just as we shall want to ensure the European perspective on this region is fully represented and voiced.
Much of the formal and informal discussion here had to do with Iran. We heard a powerful statement from the United States on the dilemmas before us of Iran’s policies. While many concentrated on the nuclear file, there was perhaps insufficient discussion on how to handle support from Iran to illegal armed groups who are party to sectarian and intra‑Shia violence in Iraq.
The responses from the region were also revealing, both on Iran’s influence in Iraq as well as on the specific nuclear issue. The responses indicated that we have not yet settled on an ideal policy. To speak plainly on a nuclear file alone, this is what we heard: doing nothing if Iran got the bomb would have the effect of seeding more regional power to the country which has, at best, difficult relations with the region. At the other extreme, a military strike would not be certain to eliminate whatever programme might exist, though it would certainly retard it. However, it would inspire a backlash against states in the region and also on western targets.
Containment of Iran’s deterrent, if one were to be created, would require more open cooperation on security and defence between the Gulf Arab states and the West. This is an approach that is difficult for some states, given the thin level of popular support in the region for close cooperation with the United States. Engaging with Iran must be done with full regional consultation. We heard from the prime minister of Qatar. He is not opposed to inventive diplomacy. The concern was that some package arrangement might be arrived at over the heads of the GCC states if a policy of engagement with Iran were to be pursued.
What is clear then is that the international community needs to strive harder to develop a coherent attitude to the unanswered questions posed by Iran’s behaviour and attitude, while being alert to genuine opportunities to engage Iran constructively in this region and globally. Finding in the short term the balances in the approach will be very hard. The summary for what is apparently needed is, in itself, complex: engagement without appeasement; defence without reprisal; containment with détente.
Establishing a strong regional security architecture to advance these multiple goals will be hard. Indeed, we at the IISS remember his Royal Highness Prince Saud Al Faisal’s words at the inaugural IISS dialogue in this region. He said, ‘Regional security in the Gulf requires a closely‑knit GCC, an integrating Yemen, a stable Iraq, and a friendly Iran. It also requires sound relations with the ever‑widening group of countries with political and economic interests here.’ We at the IISS will continue, through the Manama dialogue, to try to create some of the foundations to meet that goal.
I mentioned to His Highness Crowned Prince Salman of Bahrain that it takes five years to completely build the solid foundations of an informal regional security institution. That is about how long it took to have the IISS Shangri‑La Dialogue in Singapore firmly grounded as part of the regional defence diplomacy architecture of the Asia Pacific. We are 80% of the way there now in this region. Next year, in 2008, we will have our 50th Anniversary, and the 5th Anniversary of the Manama Dialogue. We will hold that dialogue from Friday 5 December to Sunday 7 December 2008 with the support of all the states that were invited this year, including some that were unable to attend, but have attended in the past.
We at the IISS will stretch every sinew to ensure that this excellent institution for regional security dialogue involves all the relevant states from the region, North America, Europe and Asia, at the highest level, to meet over the whole period in the interests of developing those habits of genuine consultation and diplomacy that can ease tensions and build peace.
This Manama Dialogue is not just an annual event, but an evolving process. During the next 11 months, the IISS will be working with the governments of all the participating states, and some that may newly participate next year at a high level, to build the personal relationships that can assure comprehensive participation at the 2008 Manama Dialogue.
I would now like to end by thanking the Kingdom of Bahrain for all their vital support, and the many young people from the Kingdom of Bahrain who also joined those in the IISS staff to make this event successful. They have been working with few hours sleep over the last week to serve the interests of this effort.
Have a safe trip home. See you soon; certainly in 2008. Thank you very much.
