As Prepared:
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, dear John, for inviting me in this first plenary session.
On the eve of the sad and dramatic 10th anniversary of the attacks of the 9/11 against the United States, it is strikingly clear to us all that the past year has shown many signs demonstrating that a new cycle in strategic affairs and history has begun. The world is leaving behind some of the main characteristics that framed the first decade of this century, even of a longer period. The changes occurring in the Arab world are not a small part of that.
From a security point of view, the world is leaving behind a decade often dominated by wars and military build up, except in Europe. War in Afghanistan, war in Iraq, war in Lebanon, murderous blows of terrorist attacks against civilian populations across the world, mostly in Muslim countries against Muslims– we must never forget that point -, but also in capitals of Europe, of Africa and of South or Far East.
We can now see that the time has come of a real change, a deep shift in some of the main geopolitical data determining the global security. As analysts or policy makers, we’d better be very vigilant not to misunderstand the importance of these changes.
A revolution in waves is striking the Arab world. It has and will have different consequences in the different countries. But it is there and it has left many of us stunned at first: a truely Arab phenomenon… from Tunis to Sanaa, to the north of Syria and to the Persian Gulf itself, a tremendous call for Justice has destabilized supposedly strong regimes, in place for decades, and this movement is still going on, illustrated by incredible demonstrations of courage and strength in many places.
This wave is firstly the work of the younger generation. But by and large it gained the whole Tunisian society after the tragic gesture of Mohammed Bouazizi in December 2010, it gained the 82 millions Egyptians, in the strongest possible signal to the whole Arab world, it gained the people of Yemen and, for months now, hundreds of thousands of Syrian citizens have been invading, week after week, with stubborn courage, the streets of their cities, in spite of the deadly shooting and arrests by the moukhabarats and the brigades of the army most loyal to the Alawi regime.
There are many lessons to learn from this still developing revolution :
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1. it is a justice-driven movement and wave. That was the big surprise for western observers, the vision of whom had been framed for decades by the 1979 revolution of Shiite clerics in Iran and the civil war in Algeria in 1991. During decades, Western opinions have been under the impression that the Arab world was stuck by a fatal choice between Islamism and dictatorship, and could likely not join globalization. But the present wave is not islamist, it is not religious, not anti-Israel (until the very last days of this week in Cairo, for specific reasons), not really driven by western style democracy, but not anti-western revengeful either, not even exactly a demand for wealth, -- it is a claim for justice and human dignity, justice against the greed of small numbered elites, against corruption, against unemployment, against tyrannies. This call has not ended : like the Tunisians and the Egyptians and the Libyans, the Syrians call for justice for their nation-Syria today, because the movement is also about the nation, the real nation, the nation as a whole;
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2. Because it is deeply rooted in the nation, this general movement does not obey a “domino effect”, like democracies in Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall and of the iron curtain. However, the call for justice in itself is certainly contagious and long lasting. We’ve not seen the end of it. For Arab citizens, an invisible wall has been brought down, the wall of fear. Fear is now in the other camp. Solutions will be national, the actors of the revolution are looking, rightly, for nation- inclusive solutions to the crisis. They should be encouraged to do so. But it can still spread. What will come next, with different characteristics, we do not know. What about justice in Palestine, justice in Lebanon, justice in Iraq, not to speak about justice in so very close Iran?
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3. Foreign intervention has been and must remain an exception. The restraint from the US administration, after a decade of all out interventions on the ground and in all common spaces of the region, must not be seen as a sign of weakness, but as a welcome sign of caution and wisdom. The risks associated to new mistakes on the part of Western powers in this part of the world are too enormous and out of place. Now is the time for strategies of solidarity, of support to civil society, of pressure for just solutions, and renewed and stubborn efforts of diplomacy in those places where the situation seems to be in a desperate deadlock. Sometimes this action may take the form of sanctions, when governments in place put themselves in the margins of civilised nations. And such strategies are probably the best ways to support the popular movements in their desire for justice and dignity, and their fight against obvious efforts by these regimes to divide the nations or invent enemies
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4. Many observers have also stressed, - and I completely share their views -, the defeat of Al Qaïda and of radical Islam terror groups in the streets of the Arab countries, which were precisely the main targets of the organisation. The revolution appears as an astounding political and moral defeat for terrorism, it has shown the right way out of the deadly status quo; and somehow, it heavily contributed to finish the job against Ben Laden before its very death in Pakistan
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5. Of course, lots of questions remain unanswered :
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future developments, if any, in the Maghreb will be of a crucial importance for Europe and for France, as was demonstrated by the attention in our countries to the Libyan crisis. As I said, the intervention mode must obviously remain an exception, particularly in this region of the African continent. But the future of Algeria and Morocco is a question and an issue, considering the weight, the role and the future of the young generations in these countries, the wishes for cooperation in the Mediterranean sea that Europe is developing, and the unsolved question of immigration, to quote only a few subjects
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the impact of the global Arab process on the environment of Israel is yet unknown: the uprisings happened as the Near East was already, and still is, approaching a dangerous moment, as negotiations with the Palestinians remain in a blind and dreadful deadlock. The situation on the ground in Palestine is that of a slowly but growingly clear de facto impossibility of a two States solutions, beyond words and lip service abundantly paid. No palatable alternatives seem to be on the table. Because of this impasse, if nothing changes, the region is without doubts heading towards new dramas. The geopolitical environment is much transformed and certainly not stabilised. Let’s hope this uncertainty will trigger additional restraint and not the desire for adventures. New roles for an assertive Turkey and for Egypt are at hand. Peace is an absolute requirement for the transitions opened in the Arab countries to be led serenely. Let me express the hope that great powers with crucial influence in the region will use together their full weight in this direction. As one observer recently pointed out, wars and dictators are now the best and last allies of terror groups, Al Qaïda and extremists: they must be contained
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huge problems remain to be solved and are apparently untouched : the fight for economic growth and against unemployment will benefit from the movement only in the mid- or long-term; the divisions between Sunnis and Chiites in the Middle East remain a dangerous line of fracture; the nuclear military program of Iran, which we believe is real and recognised as such – on this I formally disagree with the Honorable Guest speaker of last night- is continuing whatever the warnings and represents a looming danger of regional – and wider - destabilisation; the lessons that the radical Islam movements with a political agenda will draw from the turmoil are yet to be uncovered;
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And obviously there are risks associated with the revolution, as with any. But please let’s first salute the nature of this popular movement, support its developments and rejoice with the restored pride among Arab citizens.
Let me now turn towards other aspects of the present changes. They concern the global impact of the Arab uprisings, the strategy of the United States, and the consequences to be drawn for Europe and countries like France.
Globally, it is remarkable that these movements in the Arab world will first have an impact in the whole of the Muslim world, both in Asia and Africa. Let me quickly quote a few of them.
The defeat of Al Qaïda in the streets and minds will have a destructive impact on the attempts to raise so called global terror movements, that are de facto acting mostly against Muslim populations as the total numbers of casualties demonstrate. It already ruins the basis for the credibility of web propaganda that has been the brand of Ben Laden and Al Zawahiri all these last ten years.
The new pride of Arab Muslims and those who helped them, the way they smashed the perpetual image of fatal defeat and injustice will find an echo and be perceived as an example in developing countries and emerging economic powers of the Muslim world. I am thinking in particular of countries in South and South-East Asia.
And new opportunities for dialogue and cooperation within Islam and with other religions might be encouraged.
Meanwhile, around the globe, regimes relying on repressive services and forces are scrambling to understand and design the ways to take into account and control or counter the use of Internet and social networks in popular upheavals.
In line with their growing presence and increasing economic interests there, Governments in Asia are closely following what has happened politically and what could be the next developments, particularly in the Middle East and the Gulf region.
African countries are torn between the fear to be again or even more marginalised, and the hope that injustice is not fatal.
But it is probably in the United States strategic posture that the biggest change is underway, with important impacts around the globe.
Withdrawals from Iraq, then Afghanistan, and the elimination of Ben Laden, coupled with a severe economic and financial crisis triggering itself political gridlocks, amount to a sea change compared to the dominant features of the previous decade.
America will concentrate on nation building, but at home. It will retain a global role, but most likely, at least for a while, through more traditional and cautious control of global commons.
This big change does not mean in itself paralysis, nor isolationism. In many ways, it is not a surprise because it has been announced several times by President Obama. And it represents a welcome development after the misconducts of the 2000’s.
We even might find ourselves associated with an America freer to design and implement its global strategy, provided it keeps the necessary means for that purpose.
And, as far as changes in the Arab world are concerned, US interests, as well as European interests, are deeply in convergence with those of the popular uprisings that were illustrated yesterday by our Egyptian guest.
Nevertheless, such a shift also raises questions that will be at the heart of our strategic debates, such as: the emergence of a new international order, the role and pertinence of multilateral organisations as they are designed today, the role of regional groupings like Europe.
Let me finish with that point.
There are a lot of lessons to be learned by Europe, as the changes in North Africa and the Middle East still make progress.
The first one is humility. We must recognise we did not have an appropriate understanding of what was really at stake in the Arab countries, or were refusing to apprehend it before this now famous spring. Even though we, Europeans, including the French, often pretend we are closer and have a better knowledge of these regions and societies than others …
This inability to anticipate big changes in nearby spaces is a weakness we share with others. But it should impose on the Europeans a desire for improving their capability to understand, anticipate and if necessary prevent surprises in the XXIst century, or we will not be up to the job of analysing strategic evolutions and requirements and deduce policies from that. The consequence is that a high degree of priority should be given to intelligence gathering, to development of expertise and research, and to collecting and sharing information from civil societies in all regions around Europe and in regions of strategic interests for Europeans.
The second one is that Europe should resist the temptation of increased fear and overall quest for protection which is related to its decline as a power and to the economic and now financial turmoil. Such a temptation is threatening to engulf its policies, generate the build up of new barriers and increase the tensions with its environment, without bringing any relief to its fundamental concerns. The quest for justice in the neighbouring North Africa and the not so distant Middle East is good news for Europe, not a badly worrying drama. It could trigger new opportunities for cooperation and development. And the Europeans should be open and ready to act in support, in line with the best of their cultural traditions.
The third one is the military standpoint. It seems to me that some of the main priorities that were set out in our most recent doctrines are confirmed by recent events. The regions of strategic interest for Europe do not always correspond to the US map, as was seen in the Libyan case, but there are big overlaps! - particularly from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean.
It seems also fair to say that there is no need for an enormous military apparatus, World War II type, for Europe security today. The need is rather for an appropriate mix of robust, specialised and complementary professional forces, capable of delivering precise results on the ground in a great variety of environments.
Is that out of reach for Europeans? Can we resist complete and invisible disarmament on the one hand, unnecessarily huge and fruitless hi-tech investments on the other hand? Giving priority to immediate in the field operational requirements and to intelligence, C3I and interoperability will be keys to the future of our political and military credibility.
Last but not least, I do not resist the temptation to underline that an integrated military multinational planning and command capability is essential for politics. I understand we, the French, were glad to find it in NATO, within the new posture determined by our President, N. Sarkozy, in 2008 as planned in the White Paper I had the honour to prepare for him with the Commission I then chaired.
As far as I know, French involvement in NATO command did not in any way impede France from being perceived as a driving force and independent nation in designing the answer to Khadafi’s threat on the population of Benghazi. And this is a welcome development. Not a threat for European defence.
I think it is a pleasant way to end my contribution to your debate this morning, on the really strategic impacts of the changes in the Arab world !
Thank you.
