Spring 2007 - - Survival - Can Iran’s Nuclear Capability be Kept Latent?

Iran may not yet have made a decision to produce nuclear weapons and the evidence trail of weapons plans and military involvement stops in 2003. If, as seems likely, UN sanctions and financial pressure do not persuade Tehran to stop its uranium enrichment programme, the United States may turn to military options to try to push back the date by which Iran could have a nuclear weapon. Low confidence that air strikes could delay Iran’s weapons programme, however, and the negative consequences that military action would entail should lead policymakers to consider whether the nuclear timeline might be prolonged through negotiation. Accepting the reality of small-scale, intermittent enrichment activity in exchange for tight international inspection access holds some appeal, and the asking price will only rise over time. But legitimising Iran’s programme has significant disadvantages, especially without an assurance of swift and severe penalties in the event the deal is broken.