By Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Non-proliferation
Survival
Vol 48 no 3, Autumn 2006
Assessing Iran’s Nuclear Programme
The many indicators of military involvement in Iran’s nuclear programme strongly suggest that Iran seeks more than just a latent nuclear-weapons capability, although not necessarily an all-out Manhattan Project-style effort. Depending on assumptions about technical variables, the earliest Iran might be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon is assessed to fall between the end of 2008 and 2010, a range that might be said to be within the margin of error, given the unknowns about the programme and the inspectors’ sharply decreased access. This timetable provides room for diplomacy. There are strong arguments, with universal appeal, for opposing an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability.
