On Tuesday 3 February 2009, Dr Robert Ayson (Senior Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University) addressed members and guests of the Institute on “Asia’s Major Power Balance: Perspectives from Australia”. Organised by IISS-Asia, the event took place at 9 Raffles Place, #53-02 Republic Plaza.
Synopsis:
Asia can have a favourable security order if the major powers on whom that order depends accommodate each other in a series of mutually reinforcing bargains. While these informal understandings might just produce a concert of Asia’s great powers, the region’s medium and smaller powers face a strong counter-temptation to seek order more formally through organizations (including Kevin Rudd’s Asia-Pacific Community proposal and existing regional institutions, many of which are centred on Southeast Asia). Australia has always been sensitive to changes in Asia’s strategic balance, and has long been a promoter of regional multilateral initiatives and a prominent regional ally of the United States. But Canberra, Singapore and other regional capitals may find that while they have a major interest in the future major power balance involving the United States, China, Japan and India, there may not be a great deal they can do realistically to shape it, unless their involvement in a secondary concert of Asian middle powers could encourage the primary concert of the major powers.
Robert Ayson is a Senior Fellow in the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre where he directs the Graduate Studies in Strategy and Defence (Masters) program. He completed his PhD in War Studies at King’s College London as a Commonwealth Scholar to the United Kingdom.
[IISS-Asia is pleased to acknowledge the financial support of the Australian Department of Defence for this seminar series.]
